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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (22090)	11/28/2004 12:31:11 PM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312358

Ah Claude - a most reasoned post. My major disagreement with you is your optimism for Europe. Their demographics are terrible. If we have unfunded liabilities - they have one an order of magnitude worse. I simply see daily the economic realities of the Euro - I fear few here do. In a simple view - we have hard working immigrants from Mexico who share our basic values. Europe should be so luck with their immigration problem. Hey if some are right - Canada will get a wave of immigration from the US. I trust you will recognize them as members of the looney left and not an asset to your democracy.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (22090)	11/28/2004 2:23:15 PM
From: kacy_in_LA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312358

Claude: <<It will take decades...>> This is the most relevant part of your comment. If a shift in world economic dominance occurs, it will happen over the course of the next generation or two ... not next year, as often seems to be the expectation in many commentaries. And who can say what social and technological innovations may occur in that time period that will alter what seems, at the moment, to be a predetermined path. To my mind, there is not a tradable or investable thesis here -- unless, of course, you want to try and take advantage of those who think that their is. One thing is for sure ... if you look back through history, the accuracy of long-run economic predictions (those beyond 5-10 years) hovers around zero percent -- we like to forecast based on straight line projections of current conditions, but the marketplace is dynamic in the extreme and follows anything but a linear path. Kacy

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (22090)	11/28/2004 4:54:20 PM
From: russet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 312358

Consumption is at the heart of all wealth creation. As long as world population is increasing, and humans wish to progress to higher levels of consumption, we will remain in a long term economic bull market. There is no reason to believe that consumption and borrowing are evil and should be stopped in favor of saving. Consume till you drop, and enjoy life thoroughly as you only get to go through it once. It makes more sense than squirreling all your earnings away for your descendents to spend. You could be dead tomorrow. If you're going to start debt comparisons, you need to start citing ratios as without them you are spouting hot air. The income to debt ratios of all Americans continue to be lower than much of the rest of the world, as do net worth to debt both per capita, and for the country as a whole. Americans are rising to the challenge of a terrorist threat on their soil, adapting, renewing, and moving on. Nations and corporation (nations tend to become insular and inward looking, while corporations become global and multicultural) who prefer to look in the rear view mirror at past glory are the nations and corporations that will be hurt, not the ones that spend and borrow to enter the new information and high technology age. Countries are yesterday's answer, humans have outgrown them. In the future we will talk of global corporations and global organizations and societies as a whole which transcend country boundaries. As the human race becomes more and more educated and knowledgeable, governments will give way to world institutions,...it really is a small world filled by small minded people, but the minds are slowly being expanded.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (22090)	11/28/2004 7:11:07 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312358

> The Euro at $1.50 and the loonie at $1.00 Only 12-13% above where we are now, so maybe not much more to go ? I could live with a dollar index of 75 taking gold near $500, but we going to need another story besides the dollar to take us higher. Almost all of the move in gold from 250-to-450 can be explained by the dollar going from 120-to-80.