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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Libbyt who wrote (22500)	11/29/2004 11:23:54 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Market Direction: Okay, I had a busy weekend travelling and will take most of today to recover. Again, I strongly suggest we get off the politics/war/social issues hobby horse here (there are many, many better threads for those issues) and refocus on making money. I will consider changing the introductory paragraph to that message in the next few days if no one objects too strongly. I don't mean to be a slave to Mammon about this, but the social issue discussions here have never made me a dime, and often taken up energy I would have been better off using somewhere else. To me, the question of making money in the markets boils down to a few issues: 1. Market direction. Since a really long term market direction (say, more than 6 months) is, imho, not only unknowable but pretty much irrelevant (whipsaws can empty your brokerage account in 3 months . . .). So far, the best resources I have come across in determining market direction are: Lowry's (I do not have a subscription), TCNet Worden Notes, Pasternak's technical advice letters. Here is the Worden assumptions on trend for 11/22, for example: ASSUMPTIONS (NOTE: As of November 19, 2004, we switched from 3-day charts to Daily charts as the basis for Trend Assumptions. We'll stay with this as long as only three trends are apparent. If we see four, we'll go back to 3-day charts.) Primary Trend: UP Intermediate Trend: UP Minor Trend: MIXED Dow and SP-500 DOWN; NDX-X UP And for 11/26, all trends are back UP: Primary Trend: UP Intermediate Trend: UP Minor Trend: UP 2. Stock scanning and filtering. Here is where TC2000 and TCNet are really in a class by themselves. Although not perfect systems (I don't care for the innacuracy of the charts), the amazing speed and flexibility and ease of the scanning, sorting and listing functions are almost beyond description. Certainly beyond my poor analytical abilities. If you wanted to sort for the 20 highest priced optionable stocks which showed the greatest rise in OBV over the last 13 trading sessions, it's a snap. It might take a nanosecond. Oh, you meant the last 17 sessions? Done. You want to make a list of those and keep adding to it over the next 10 trading days. Simple. Now you want to take that list, maybe 46 stocks, and sort for the stocks which showed the highest, or lowest ROC scores? Easy. Time segmented volume (a proprietary indicator)? Done. You want to compare their performance now against the Naz? Done. I'd be happy to learn about other stock discovery systems OR hear from people who believe you are best off trading one vehicle, the QQQs, or DIA or SPY or DELL. 3. Trading signals. Here, we're all on our own. What do we want to trade, on what basis? When do we enter, how long do we ride a position, what signals get us out. We can talk about this if you want, but in a large group it pretty soon can go off the deep end. I find that even if I'm using the exact same system as someone else, I won't use the signals in the same way. 4. Position/money management. If we're pretty much on our own in #3, we're completely on our own here. Whether you limit your loss on each position to 2% of your capital or 0.2% , is like smoking cigarettes or cleaning your ears, something to be done in the privacy of your own quarters. The one exception to money management issues is the idea of using options to hedge your exposure, where I think sharing techniques and approaches can help. So, in the end, we can probably help ourselves the most if we focus on #1, #2 and the exception to #4?? Comments welcome. Kb