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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (17040)	11/29/2004 8:14:50 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japan Oct commercial sales up 1.0 pct on yr; retail sales down 1.4 pct UPDATE Monday, November 29, 2004 8:42:26 AM afxpress.com (Adds details, comments by ministry official, economist) TOKYO (AFX) - Commercial sales in Japan, or total sales at the wholesale and retail levels, rose 1.0 pct year-on-year in October, the ninth increase in 11 months, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said Retail sales fell 1.4 pct year-on-year, the seventh decline in eight months Adjusted for changes in the number of stores, large retail store sales fell 4.1 pct from a year earlier, the eighth straight month of decline Sales at the wholesale level rose 1.7 pct year-on-year, the 10th increase in 11 months, the ministry said. In September, commercial sales rose 1.7 pct year-on-year, as retail sales fell 0.3 pct while sales at the wholesale level increased 2.3 pct Economists and a METI official said the extraordinarily frequent and severe typhoons this year affected commercial sales adversely "Rises in oil and metal products due to brisk base-materials market contributed to increase the sales figures "While a drop in sales of clothing that was adversely affected by more rains and typhoons than an average year, and a drop in automobile sales, which is seen caused by less registration dates than a year earlier due to more holidays, have worked as downward factors," said a METI official In the retail segment, sales of fuel products jumped 15.4 pct year-on-year, while sales of clothing fell 2.8 pct and sales of automobile dropped 8.0 pct Sales of machinery and appliances fell 1.0 pct, improving from a 7.6 pct drop in September and 7.8 pct decline in August "Sales of flat TVs and DVDs are beginning to recover, according to our survey of relevant industries," said the official The official said the ministry believes that retail sales is "showing improvement." Yoshikiyo Shimamine, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute agreed with the METI official's view "I don't see this (October commercial sales) as implying any setback of improvement in consumer spending, as there were special factors such as two big typhoons during the month "Besides, recent data shows employment and income situations are improving, which should support consumer spending," said Shimamine He also noted the smaller decline in sales of machinery and appliances suggests "sales of digital appliances are recovering toward the end of this year." Last month, the government said the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6 pct in September from 4.8 pct the previous month, well below the average forecast of 4.8 pct in a Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey of 23 research institutions Tomorrow the government will release October unemployment rate and other key indicators such as industrial output. Earlier this month the government said in a preliminary report that the economy barely grew in the July-September quarter, due to a slowdown in export growth and a drop in corporate capital spending, the two major driving forces behind the nation's economic recovery Instead, increasing private consumption drove what little growth occurred last quarter. Consumer spending supports 55-60 pct of the economy Next month the government is expected to release a revised estimate for third-quarter growth, computed under a new methodology, showing the economy actually shrank last quarter even before the yen started rising sharply against the dollar

To: RealMuLan who wrote (17040)	11/29/2004 8:19:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Forex - Australian dollar falls on record current account deficit Monday, November 29, 2004 8:42:27 AM afxpress.com SYDNEY (AFX) - The Australian dollar was trading weaker following the release of September quarter balance of payments data showing a record 13.685 bln aud current account deficit, worse than the consensus forecast deficit of about 15.2 bln, dealers said They said the poor result is likely to lead to a downward revision of gross domestic product growth forecasts to the region of 0.3 to 0.5 pct for the third quarter from a consensus 0.7 pct At 12.45 pm the Australian dollar was trading at 0.7853 usd from 0.7880 just before the data's release at 11.30 am and a low of 0.7834 following the release Dealers said the while Australia's economic fundamentals remain strong, the lower growth forecasts lessen the chance of interest rates rises, reducing the dollar's attractiveness as a high yielding currency The Australian dollar had been bid up to nine month highs approaching 79.25 usd last week as the US dollar weakened on US current account deficit funding concerns. "Our current account refuses to improve and is showing signs of deteriorating which on a Monday morning hasn't helped with the market having been caught long (the Australian dollar)" Westpac Banking Corp head of currency strategy, Robert Rennie said He said third quarter gross domestic growth forecasts will be cut as a result and yield differentials are likely to narrow Rennie said funding concerns relating to the US current account deficit have heightened interest in deficit numbers although there are not near-term concerns as far as the Australian deficit is concerned "The balance of accounts data doesn't show there is any problem funding Australia's current account deficit - indeed the reverse is the case with the current account continuing to be met by over funding but as we know there is a risk and the market is beginning to focus on that," he said

To: RealMuLan who wrote (17040)	11/29/2004 8:23:00 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

China central bank official says no timetable for yuan exchange rate reform Monday, November 29, 2004 8:42:27 AM afxpress.com BEIJING (AFX) - China has no timetable for reform of its exchange rate regime for the yuan, although reform will come eventually, the China Securities Journal reported, citing central bank vice governor Li Ruogu "The yuan's exchange rate mechanism will be reformed further but there is no timetable for it," Li said Li said the yuan exchange rate will remain stable Pressure has been mounting on China to revalue its currency, which is pegged to the US dollar, or to increase the flexibility of the Chinese exchange rate mechanism. The yuan has effectively been pegged at 8.3 yuan to the dollar since 1994 Last week, Li was quoted by the Financial Times as saying that an appreciation of the yuan would not solve structural problems in the US, and that although China is gradually moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility, it would not do so under heavy external pressure He said the best environment for China to introduce a more flexible exchange rate is when it is not a focus of attention and when the appropriate domestic financial infrastructure is in place

To: RealMuLan who wrote (17040)	11/29/2004 8:24:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Australia´s Costello says Australian dollar ´challenging´ exports Monday, November 29, 2004 8:42:31 AM afxpress.com Australia's Costello says Australian dollar 'challenging' exports SYDNEY (AFX) - The recent appreciation of the Australian dollar and other key currencies against the US dollar will pose a challenge to local exporters as they try to compete against exports from the US and from countries with currencies linked to the US dollar, Federal Treasurer Peter Costello said "We expect it will be a challenging year for exporters," Costello told parliament. "The level of the currency has made things harder for Australian exporters, in part this is because of commodity prices, but largely, this is because of the falling US dollar, which is falling against the major currencies of the world," he said The Australian dollar is currently trading at 0.7850 usd, up from around 0.71 usd just two months ago. "It is important to keep our economy competitive so Australia's exports can cope with those difficult trading conditions," the treasurer said. "Certainly, it would be helpful if that adjustment in the US dollar were to be shared by a wider range of currencies than is currently the case," Costello said.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (17040)	11/29/2004 8:30:39 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China questions slide in US dollar, rejects pressure on yuan Monday, November 29, 2004 8:42:32 AM afxpress.com VIENTIANE (AFX) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has criticised the US for not taking measures to halt the slide in the dollar and insisted that China will not revalue the yuan under pressure "You must consider the impact on China's economy and society and also consider the impact on the region and the world," Wen said in Laos late Sunday when asked about pressure to change the yuan's decade-old peg to the dollar "China is a responsible country. In 1997, during the (Asian) financial crisis, we maintained the basic stability of the yuan and made the kind of contribution that we should," he was quoted by Agence France-Presse as saying "Today on the other hand we have to ask a question. The US dollar is depreciating and it is not managed; what is the reason for that? Shouldn't the relevant parties adopt measures?" US manufacturers complain that the yuan, pegged at about 8.3 to the dollar since 1994, is undervalued and gives China an unfair advantage by making Chinese exports cheaper China says its lower labor costs are the reason for the competitiveness of its products in the US and other markets It has signalled that it is working to make its foreign exchange regime more flexible though it has not given any timetable The premier echoed Chinese regualtors who have said that any move would be taken when there is less international attention on the yuan "Honestly speaking, the more speculation (about a yuan revaluation) there is in society, the more unlikely it is that the necessary measures can be undertaken," Wen said, according to AFP Chinese President Hu Jintao said during a meeting with US leader George W. Bush in Chile a week ago that Beijing planned to loosen the yuan's peg -- but only under the right conditions "We will continue to push forward the reform on the yuan exchange rate, while maintaining overall stability in our economy," Hu was quoted as telling Bush ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum talks He indicated that China would seek to prevent wild fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate if and when the peg was loosened According to US statistics, China's trade surplus with the United States ballooned to more than 120 bln usd last year and has been growing at a record rate, totalling 15.5 bln usd in September and 15.4 bln usd in August