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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rolatzi who wrote (22678)	11/30/2004 11:04:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I can't see that interest rates will rise for long or far without resulting in a gigundic recession which would then send interest rates back down below 1%. ciao, rolatzi Bingo Mish

To: rolatzi who wrote (22678)	12/1/2004 2:39:29 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

<Do you see next spring as a top in interest rates or will they continue to rise? > Just a scenario I've come up with as possible is the short rates peak at around 3.5% by mid 2005 as Greenspan finishes his tightening with the 5 to 30 eventually flattening out and peaking later in the year in the 6% range even in a sluggish economy. The debt cleansing to begin in 2006 at which point Greenspan reverses course quickly but it will be too late to save the world from the worst recession in over 30 years (and that is my optimistic scenario)!!

To: rolatzi who wrote (22678)	12/1/2004 8:48:06 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 110194

Interest rates will be determined as much by deficits, inflation, foreign CB support for the treasury market, and the dollar as by the performance of the US economy and Fed policy. Also the fact that interest rates have been kept artificially low for years suggests that they will go higher than most expect when the pendulum swings. Market extremes in one direction often lead to similar extremes in the opposite direction when the worm turns. I am not smart enough to be able to predict exactly how high rates will go or when we will see the next peak. But I am quite sure that peak will be MUCH higher than now.