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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (25547)	12/1/2004 2:19:10 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

John, RE: "If my math and logic are correct then the other 60% is up to their eyeballs in debt carrying a huge mortgage " Right. Next question is, how many defaults does it take to bring down the system? 5%, 10%, 20%, 30% ? Funny how we never see any estimates in print, to assess the stability. Regards, Amy J

To: John Vosilla who wrote (25547)	12/1/2004 3:10:20 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Your assumption is correct. Here's the home equity percentage in America over time, currently 54% equity and 46% debt. home.pacbell.net along with a chart of the actual amount of equity extraction . . home.pacbell.net Of course this is made up of the 40% of home owners who have no debt, and the 60% of home owners who have 23.3% equity with 76.7% debt. (54% overall equity - 40% debt free)/ 60% with debt = 23.3% If estimates of the change in the number of debt-free home owners are incorrect, and the percentage of home owners without debt is still as high as 44%, then the average equity of home owners with debt is only 17.9% equity with 82.1% debt. (54% overall equity - 46% debt free)/ 54% with debt = 17.9% § As a consequence, a decline of only 18% to 24% in home prices will eliminate all of the average equity backing real estate loans! .

To: John Vosilla who wrote (25547)	12/1/2004 7:44:18 PM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

<<If my math and logic are correct then the other 60% is up to their eyeballs in debt carrying a huge mortgage with an average loan to value over 90% to arrive at a 55% nationwide average LTV I see constantly given.>> How in the world did you come to that conclusion? If 40 percent (roughly) own their homes outright, and another stat being bandied around the airwaves these days says that only about 11 percent of mortgages are being written for investor-types, how do you account for the other Americans who owe far less and have far more equity in their holdings?