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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3531)	12/1/2004 9:56:13 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

"Why are you comparing "shipped" to orders? Orders for Q3 were higher than the shipped number, so things are even more "serious" than you suggested." A typo, chill out. I did the calculations for revenue which should have made it clear. My bottom line conclusion was things are better than expected which I doubt you object to. Why are you talking about UTEK here? I sold some of my UTEK shares at $30 and $35 about a year ago. I recently added UTEK shares at $13.05 and see they are now at $17.55 so I've made a 34% gain on those. I also bought some at $16.XX so those too are up. Are you objecting to this or just defensive since I've made good money trading UTEK and LRCX while your favorites have done little? My current thinking is UTEK and LRCX will probably lead the recovery then I will take profits and perhaps buy some NVLS which should be starting to see some CMP revenue kick in from buying SFAM to get technology they were unable to develope on their own. If not, I suspect my AMAT shares will be doing well enough from its share of the CMP market. I may not buy NVLS and just let AMAT go higher without taking profits since they seem to track fairly well. This could save on taxes.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3531)	12/1/2004 2:39:36 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

This stability contrasts with analysts' predictions of a worsening market and might not be expected after AMAT forecast a 35% decline in orders. Splinter came very close to explicitly stating that a $200M order expected this Q was placed last Q. i.e. Orders at $2.6B were $200M over analyst estimates. A 35% decline takes them down to $1.8B. Had the order not been received early, then one would have seen $2.4B last Q and $2B this Q or about a 16% decline which is consistent with other forecasts at that time. Given NVLS midQ update, one could reasonably expect AMAT to exceed current forecasts/estimates.