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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (17306)	12/2/2004 1:30:47 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

From JPM: US automakers reported Nov.sales/Q1 05 NA production schedules on 12/1. Generally speaking, the news on Q1 production was better than the market's worse expectations, we believe. With this important data point out of the way, we think the group will trend upwards through to the Detroit Auto Show. • November light vehicle sales come in at a SAAR of 16.4MM (JPM 16.5MM, consensus 16.6MM). GM sales light (-13% versus JPM -5%) - T-800 platform sees notable volume decline (pickups -15%, SUVs-28%). Ford sales -3% (JPM -2%), with new generation cars off to a solid start; F series robust (+7%). Chrysler sales +9% (JPM +2%), helped by strong sales on Pacifica, 300 and minivans. • GM and Ford announce Q1 2005 North American production schedules modestly shy of our expectations — but likely not as bad as "whisper" expectations on the Street (double digit declines). GM guides to Q1 05 NA production -7% (cars -8%, trucks -6%). Ford guides to Q1 05 NA production -8% (cars -9%, trucks -7%). • November-ending inventory remains high for all the Big 3. GM 101 days (versus "normal" of 77, Ford 83 days (70 days), Chrysler 89 days (68). Both GM and Ford suggested that their incentive spending trended down in November sequentially, helped by a higher mix of 2005 model-year vehicles.