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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (4282)	12/1/2004 5:27:50 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

Bob... As I recall we've had this particular discussion before... <smile> And you've been right... Higher petroleum prices have not shuttered the economic strength of this country or europe for that matter... due to innovation, economic subsidies, etc.... this is a highly managed economy. But oil prices sustained for months at these levels has never happened before and it will have an effect. OPEC needs $50 to $80 to maintain their purchasing power. stockcharts.com[w,a]mfoannay[d19900127,20041227][pf][ilb14!lh14,3!lah5,34,5!lj[$usd]][J31248351,Y]&pref=G My case rests in what I posted.... And I expect you will be surprised in 6 months. You cannot have a runaway bull market under these conditions... High energy costs are a built in tax... This tax causes imbalances during the period of adaptation... consumers will weaken, inflation will be modest, agricultural products especially grains will increase, economic growth stays flat, market indexes will be volatile and for sure the big international money managers will effect our Currencies future. What I'm looking at is NOT bearish destruction.... but more of what we've seen in 2004, don't believe the broad markets will get over the 0.618 around 1253 retrace any time soon. stockcharts.com[h,a]waoannay[d19981130,20041130][pb33!b50!b72!b150!b200!f][ilb6!lb12!ld20][J40454326,Y]&pref=G