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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56758)	12/2/2004 2:22:55 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<... i cannot get at all excited about vapor-ware enabled phantom gadgets 3G is in nowheresville and no one misses it> Of course Jay. Not many people miss things which they haven't yet experienced. It's only after they have used them for a while, or seen others using them, that they realize that the thing is actually a need, not a want. You'll just have to wait until somebody figures out that selling 3G services in Hong Kong is a good idea. 3G is not at all a solution looking for a problem. As you can see: 3gtoday.com Bear in mind that it is only during 2004 that W-CDMA became good enough to start selling seriously. It was only at the beginning of 2004 that 1xEV-DO got going in a robust way. <the thought of paying telephone charges to view video while commuting to the office > is indeed plain silly. But QUALCOMM's MediaFLO will enable very low cost viewing. Perhaps it will be available at no charge, funded by advertising, in the same way as normal tv. On-line games would be of little interest on micro-screens. But Microvision microvision.com might make things more interesting with 3D viewing - actual 3D viewing, not the normal "3D" games you are used to. Those would be a LOT of fun. That's for the future. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56758)	12/2/2004 3:21:58 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<3G, so far, is a solution looking for a problem. > Jay, scroll down to see my favourite graph = the second one. cdg.org There are a LOT of people who are buying the solution whether they have a problem or not. What I really like about the curve is that the gradient is continuing to increase all the way from 1997. It would be easy to conclude that the curve will level off once everyone on Earth has one. But each vehicle will need one and other machines will want them too. People might want to have half a dozen types for different purposes and just to have them lying around in each room. When calculators first came out, I spent a day shopping around for one, which cost me 100 pounds = NZ$300 when my annual salary was NZ$5500. Needless to say, I only bought one. Now we have much better calculators and various types [4 function, scientific, computer] all over the place. I don't know how many we have in the house, but I guess it's about 10 in working order. 60 billion CDMA cyberphones is a LOT of cyberphones. Then there are all the transducers which might be used for data uploads to cyberspace. The graph can go a longgggg way yet. Mqurice