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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (17367)	12/2/2004 9:10:27 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

New York Times sees Q4 earns below Wall St. view (NYT) By Michael Baron NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The New York Times Co. (NYT) said it expects earnings before items of 69 to 73 cents per share in the fourth quarter, below the current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call for a profit of 75 cents per share. The company said that advertising revenue for the period wasn't as strong as anticipated and that costs for promotion, printing, distribution and newsprint increased due to strategic initiatives. For the year, New York Times forecast earnings before items of $1.90 to $1.93 per share, below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.96 per share. For 2005, the company sees ad rate growth in the mid-single digits. The company added that it will no longer provide outlooks for full fiscal years because ot the "limited visibility that today's media environment allows." New York Times also said that it plans to start expensing the cost of options and its employee stock purchase plan. It estimated the cost of doing this in 2004 would have been $97 million on a pre-tax basis, or 42 cents per share. The stock closed Wednesday at $41.06, up 6 cents.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (17367)	12/2/2004 9:23:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Australia´s Costello says economic slowdown ´not unwelcome´ Australia's Costello says economic slowdown 'not unwelcome' SYDNEY (AFX) - Treasurer Peter Costello said the slowing of the Australian economy apparent in the latest growth figures is "not unwelcome" as he maintained a forecast of annual growth of around 3.5 pct Costello said the high value of the Australian dollar, curerntly trading at just above 78 US cents, was hurting Australian exporters and the figures showed the economy growing at a sustainable rate with no threat of overheating. "Now when you put all of the factors together ... you have an economy which is growing at a clip of around three pct," he told national radio. "That is a little slower than the economy was growing earlier in the year and that's not unwelcome." Data released on Wednesday showed gross domestic product growth slowed to 3.0 pct in the September quarter from an annualized rate of 4.5 pct reported for the June quarter

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (17367)	12/2/2004 9:35:15 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

RodgerRafter on the FOOL writes about retail sales: Scientific Method: 1. Observation and Description of a phenomenon: The Republicans have been in office for 4 years. 2. Formulation of a Hypothesis: The working and middle classes are getting squeezed. 3. Use Hypothesis to Predict Other Phenomena: Retail Sales will suffer and we'll head into a consumer driven recession. 4. Perform tests of predictions: Track retail sales progress. We've made our hypothesis in advance: boards.fool.com Time to check some data, analyze and make more predictions: biz.yahoo.com The nation's retailers had a disappointing start to the holiday season, reporting sluggish sales for November as a hoped-for surge in Thanksgiving weekend business failed to materialize. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, reported a meager 0.7 percent increase in sales at stores open at least a year, Costco Wholesale Corp. reported same-store sales were up 5 percent, slightly below the 5.8 percent Wall Street estimated. Limited Brands suffered a 5 percent decline in same-store sales, far worse than the 4.8 percent increase Wall Street expected. The Bombay Co., which sells home acccessories and furniture, posted a 13 percent drop in same-store sales, Keep in mind that same store retail sales normally go up with inflation, so a store reporting a less than 2 percent increase is likely selling less stuff. If the working and middle classes are getting squeezed it isn't surprising to see Costco, who sells mostly essential stuff like food and gas, still showing good numbers. 5% is probably a more accurate measure for inflation anyway, given their product mix. At least at the store in my area, gas is a fairly recent addition and gas has been a huge seller for them (always long lines for 16 pumps). Wall Mart sells a lot of essentials too, like food, but also sells cheap consumer stuff, which is likely where they are hurting. The Limited and Bombay go progressively further into the realm of things you don't really need when money is tight. Its not surprising to see them showing bad numbers. We saw in the income and spending report that durable sales were suffering in October, and that trend probably continued through Novermber. A lack of discounting has been blamed for the lack of sales, however, we've seen that inflation has been very high (20%+) at the producer level, even though it has been low at the consumer level. Pricing pressure is already tight all the way through the supply chain. High gas prices are cutting into people's budgets. Credit card interest rate hikes are scaring the crap out of many deeply indebted consumers. Predictions for the holiday season: Outside of going-out-of-business sales, we won't see much discounting because margins are already too tight. Late in the season, retailers could get desperate to unload merchandise because of cash crunches. Consumers will buy much less than they have in past holiday seasons. Those who sell the necessities won't do nearly as badly as those who sell non-essentials, like electronics, furniture and vehicles. It won't be a meltdown, but in January we'll be reading long lists of retail bankruptcies.