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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (22792)	12/3/2004 11:15:50 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Dec 03 2004 11:00 trotsky (frustrated@RANGY) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i hadn't seen that, but was aware that all the Kebble ops have cross-shareholdings in each other. it's a complicated and frankly not very transparent web of interconnections. and whatever touch the Kebble's once had, their recent strategic decisions really stink imo ( although a falling Rand would cure that to some degree ) . most importantly these guys shouldn't be let within a two mile radius of a bullion bank - they manage to hedge all potential upside into the ground at exactly the wrong moment - latest example is Western Areas...the hedge book is yet again a complete disaster. nevertheless, imo both RANGY and DROOY are now clearly undervalued. obviously RANGY's discount to NAV is extreme to the point of being ridiculous. in DROOY's case, while it retains significant exposure to the Rand PoG, one should perhaps begin to focus on the value of its international operations which produce the bulk of its income. i note that the Porgera deal was actually brilliant ( it paid for itself in record time for instance ) - they made more money with Porgera per the last earnings report than they lost in what was a disastrous quarter for their SA operations. my guess is the next earnings report will contain an upside surprise, with the SA ops still losing money, but Porgera and Tolukuma have presumably raked in a goodly bit of dough - a lot more than last time around as it were. Date: Fri Dec 03 2004 10:30 trotsky (Hambone@Kudlow) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the man is a complete charlatan imo. not only is he spinning everything to suit his preconceived agenda ( spokesman for every statist boondoggle imaginable, as long as it has 'conservative' imprimatur ) , but he really doesn't even understand basic economic concepts. that became painfully clear when he propagated the 'broken window fallacy' after the WTC attack. a carny barker if ever there was one. Date: Fri Dec 03 2004 10:02 trotsky (pm stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved they're not following gold up, but they're sure following it down. the leverage effect has sadly become a one way street. Date: Fri Dec 03 2004 09:39 trotsky (the spin machine) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved very funny watching them spin this disastrous employment report...we're smack dab in Orwell land - no matter what happens, it can only be bullish. Date: Fri Dec 03 2004 09:10 trotsky (mini-miner) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, the day isn't over yet, but you're of course right insofar as spec net long positions in gold have become very large...so some probably took the earlier spike as an opportunity to unload. because gold rallies only happen with these net positions increasing, they usually are capped by these positions growing too big. Date: Fri Dec 03 2004 08:57 trotsky (frustrated@gold futures options) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved 430 looks more likely to me. in addition to having quite large put OI that strike should also provide strong technical support - also, the correction should increase put demand, so put OI is likely to grow as it progresses. judging from gold's reaction so far to the UE report the correction is still in pogress - that's also what jibes best with what the pm stocks have been doing ( which are however imo due a recovery near term, even if the PoG eases a bit more - unless it does one of its free-fall stunts that is ) . Date: Fri Dec 03 2004 08:35 trotsky (jobs report) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved good-bye 'recovery' , good-bye rate hikes. you can wave the housing bubble good-bye pre-emptively.