To: straight life who wrote (20162 ) 12/6/2004 9:18:38 AM From: Bob Rudd Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78519 OVTI: straight life, thanks for copying that post here. I don't consider Herb's opinions gospel, but his points on the 'good Q' being attributable to non-recurring items that didn't justify the jump rang true. As to banking on retrospective financials when new supply enters a cyclical market, my risk aversion is somewhat driven by AUO where I'm way underwater due to similar circumstances. If I were highly attuned to the camera chip market, I'd be more likely depend on my ability to see around the corners...but that's not the case so my margin of safety must include my margin of ignorance. Here's Herbs follow-up today on OVTI - following a brief diatribe on bubble mentality:Meanwhile, back on OmniVision: Quite of bit of reader response to last week's item here on the maker of camera chips, which are better known as image sensors. It was enough to get the Hostile React-o-Meter spinning, but by no means out of control. Many of the responses were along the lines that one reason investors have been bidding up OmniVision's stock is because it's cheap on a cash flow basis. (Since when are chip companies valued their cash flow? Ah, that's right, as I mentioned earlier, you use whatever metrics work. Besides, as we all know, cash flow isn't always what it appears.) Others pointed to the company's cash generation last quarter, which on the surface looks impressive. But cash generation can always look good if you defer payments to suppliers or engage in other maneuverings. Notice that "other" current liabilities rose by $16 million. (You have to wonder what the "other" means.) Meanwhile, there were readers who said I should be careful about questioning OmniVision, because it's the leader in its industry. Well, I realize that, but in tech, especially chips, today's leader is likely to be tomorrow's laggard. Success in technology breeds competition, which for OmniVision is coming from the likes of Micron Technology (MU). Micron made that clear at a recent investment conference. "The major players in that market today is OmniVision, who is, I think, generally considered to be the No. 1 player in the mobile space," Micron investor relations chief Kip Bedard said. "We have moved into what we think is probably No. 2, and we're probably about a 25 percent market share player there. There's about 32 different CMOS image sensor companies. The ones that tend to get mentioned next are ST Micro (STM) and Agilent (A). The ones that I think are coming on the horizon you have to keep your eye on would be Toshiba (TOSBF), Samsung (SSNGY), and probably even Sony (SNE) here at some point. So I think the landscape probably changes pretty dramatically over the next couple of years." If not sooner.