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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (22819)12/3/2004 10:57:12 PM
From: gregor_us  Respond to of 110194
 
Crude Had Alot of People Twisted Up Like Pretzels

on the way up, and now, like you, I have to wonder if it's about to conduct the same mischief in its most recent move downward. What I enjoy is the intersection of the Singapore Air Fuel Company story, "getting blown up real good" in bad bets as crude rose--emerging just now, as crude is crumpling.

Which victims story, of Falling Crude Woe, will emerge next, as crude begins its next rise?

Overall, I thought this week's reaction was extraordinary to the Distillate number. Very hyper.

But I do smell in it a forecast of a weakening global economy.

LP



To: Square_Dealings who wrote (22819)12/3/2004 11:05:50 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
i think the crude plunge is mainly speculative or short-term noise. i don't think it says dick about "the world economy". look at the long-dated contracts--they have not gone down by much. the downside delta has been less than 50% of the front month. what was a $16 discount on the 6yr contract (CLZ10) has shrunk to less than $6. i think the market continues to take the long-term structurally higher crude pricing quite seriously.


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