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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (14498)	12/4/2004 4:50:09 PM
From: Arthur Radley	Respond to of 52153

Jon, You make a good point about diversification and going into 2005 I think this is an issue more critical than in a long time. You being a foreign banker puts you right in the heart of the region of the world that is going to eventually wise up and not fund our growing deficit spending. A sinking dollar is eventually going to "sink" to the point that the China's and Japan's are going to walk away from our federal debt offers...and KABOOM! Merely look at two things that corporate leaders are doing: 1) They have built up more corportate cash than in many a year. Instead of investing in the future...they are sitting on this cash. Some might not know but federal tax incentives for companies to invest in new equipment expires in three weeks...but apparently corporations had rather keep their cash. And we know why corporation build up cash reserves...to ride out hard times. 2) Corporate insiders are selling their stock at historical high levels. Just this past month...over $6 "B" of insider stock has been sold. This is future showing that corporate leaders aren't seeing a bright future in 2005. I'm open to any suggestions..whether in the biotech arena or medical service areas of investing. I'm not looking for pink sheet Florida or Canadian biotechs that have the next sure cure for cancer..but a biotech with a track record of management that knows what they are doing. (Merely ask Rick about management that doesn't have a clue...BIOTRANSPLANT comes to mind and Rick literally shouted out loud to anyone that would listen that they are screwing up a good deal with their trial protocols). Also, something with at least Phase II results as these Phase I sure fire winners seem to never make it to home plate. Also, I don't want merely some of the "exotics". A mundane company like (CMN) has given me a double this year and IMO they are hitting on all cylinders for the future, but they are a NYSE company with no major brokerage house following them and management hardly ever puts out a PR. Another medical services company is VASC, as with (CMN) no brokerage coverage and few PR's but they are IMO ready to break out from my $8.00 entry level. As for biotechs, I like (NUVO). IMO they are not in the "exotic" category of drug development, but then they have three drugs in 4 areas of development that should put them in a leadership role for a multi-billions market potential. Pending is news for another drug coming out of their internal development work(probably in the exotic area). Hard to find small biotechs with 5 drug trials going on as (NUVO) has. As for management...Chairman helped found AMGN. CEO comes from DNA. Both are sound leaders IMO. This news today from them.. msnbc.msn.com As for shorts..some might find this abhorent, but going into 2005 IMO this is a sound investment approach. When I can find companies like (NTY) to short...when I can find companies like (TPX) with a "unique foam mattresses" that sells for thousands of dollars and with a major mattress company soon coming out with their "unique foam mattress" selling for nearly 50% less than (TPX's) unique foam mattress...you better believe I will take a short position.