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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (22827)	12/4/2004 8:51:37 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 110194

Russ I dont think its a race where people are voting they think things are better in Europe economically as much as concern that the US financial system is out of control and potentially on the verge of serious problems. Also the US political scene seems less than stable. War seems to be the only thing we think about. M

To: russwinter who wrote (22827)	12/4/2004 12:10:32 PM
From: Carlos Blanco	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

This biz about the whole world being short the dollar is nonsense. The USD fundamentally appears to most to be a one way bet, and to me a big bet has clearly been made against it. it's my opinion that true "short the dollar" or "bet against the dollar" plays/hedges are mostly occurring inside the US by people with dollar incomes and assets (e.g. myself). and thus they are not a significant factor in the dollar decline when viewed in a global context. in the rest of the world, most of what you are seeing is not a "shorting" of dollars but an unwinding of existing huge long dollar position in both currencies and assets. the dollar purchases have already occurred by central banks, institutions, and individuals in the course of the past 25 years. anyone who thinks that such selling must somehow be "covered" causing a dollar recovery is making a huge conceptual error. these are not short sales. they are sales, period. furhtermore, as many have pointed out, it's not even necessary for foreigners to sell their existing dollar assets for the dollar to continue falling--all it will take is a reduction in buying. there is no difference whatsoever between the dollar bubble and the stock bubble. on the way up the shares/dollars are issued indiscriminately, they are bought by people who should've known better, and finally they get sold causing a huge plunge. expecting that an unwinding of speculative positions will reverse the dollar decline for anything longer than 5 minutes is mistaking the visible 10% for the real iceberg.