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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (153354)	12/5/2004 9:59:53 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

You can sit and call the timing coincidence and claim that Gaddafi never said what he said (he himself has not denied it to my knowledge), and proclaim that Gaddafi would have behaved the same way even if we had not invaded Iraq. This story stretches credulity, imo. The only thing that stretches credulity is your assertion that it was necessary to invade Iraq in order to push Libya to declare its nuclear programs. The short summary with puts to lie your assertion: - Libya had been under sanctions for a decade - Libya had been taking steps to end those sanctions - Libya's economy had been hit hard by those sanctions - Libya has oil to export, a hardest hit sector - Libya had been moving to distance itself from the Arab league - In September 2003 all UN sanctions against Libya were removed At this point Libya finally arrives at a goal it had been working toward for many years. And then, the coup de grace: - In October 2003 US Naval forces intercepted a shipment of Uranium enrichment components destined for Libya Caught red-handed, what other choice did Libya have? It faced being put under sanctions again, or, accepting the fact that it would have to divest itself of this ambition if it wanted to ever open up the country to investment and international trade. The path Libya had been heading down in that regard is very clear, therefore its a foregone conclusion that Libya would relent to diplomatic pressure and come clean, and that is exactly what happened. I consider this an ideal, textbook in fact, case of the proper use of intelligence, military capabilities, and diplomacy. Timeline: 1992 UN passes resolutions and sanctions - 731 (1992) of 21 January 1992 - 748 (1992) of 31 March 1992 - After Libya was implicated in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, UN sanctions were imposed in 1992. UN Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs) passed in 1992 and 1993 obliged Libya to fulfill requirements related to the Pan Am 103 bombing before sanctions could be lifted. Qadhafi initially refused to comply with these requirements, leading to Libya’s political and economic isolation for most of the 1990s. (US State Department) 1993 UN extends further sanctions and financial controls Resolution 883 (1993) 1999 In 1999, Libya fulfilled one of the UNSCR requirements by surrendering two Libyans suspected in connection with the bombing for trial before a Scottish court in the Netherlands. One of these suspects, Abdel Basset al-Megrahi, was found guilty; the other was acquitted. (US State Department) 5 April 1999 - arrival in Netherlands of two persons charged with Pan Am Flight 103 bombings The Security Council, at its 3992nd Meeting held on 8 April 1999, adopted a Presidential Statement (S/PRST/1999/10), in which it noted that the conditions for suspending the wide range of aerial, arms and diplomatic measures against the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya had been fulfilled as of 5 April, 1400 hours EST. It therefore suspended sanctions indefinitely against Libya. (UN) 2002 Al-Megrahi’s conviction was upheld on appeal in 2002. 2003 - August 2003, Libya fulfilled the remaining UNSCR requirements - UN sanctions were lifted on September 12, 2003. In Resolution 1506 (2003), adopted on 12 September 2003, the Security Council formally lifted the sanctions against Libya and terminated the mandate of the Sanctions Committee for Libya. The resolution was adopted by 13 votes in favour and none against, with the United States and France abstaining. And the coup de grace: - October 2003 1 Dec 2003 -- Bush administration officials are confirming news reports that a U-S-led naval operation in October interdicted a shipment of uranium-enrichment components bound for Libya. U-S officials say the seizure may have helped prompt Libya to make its pledge two weeks ago to dismantle weapons of mass destruction. globalsecurity.org - On December 19, 2003, Libya announced its intention to rid itself of WMD and MTCR-class missile programs. Since that time, it has cooperated with the U.S., the U.K., the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons toward these objectives. Libya has also signed the IAEA Additional Protocol and has become a State Party to the Chemical Weapons Convention. (State Department)