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Strategies & Market Trends : Currents of Currency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flint who wrote (100)	12/5/2004 4:24:45 PM
From: The Wharf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 594

NOV 2004 CA budget re cap Corporation tax revenues were $123 million above the month's forecast of $264 million. Prepayments and other payments were $23 million and $148 million above the estimates of $235 million and $151 million, respectively. This gain was partially offset by refunds, which were $48 million above the projected level of $122 million. Year-to-date, this tax is up $607 million from forecast. >>What you say appears to be in line with this. Here in CA office building are increasing. Appears vacancies aren't a problem. Bargains are however and wages must rise to meet costs. I feel we are in for continued inflation at this time so I rather like gold because if I am correct we are heading towards a world currency crisis. Suppose in some ways I do concur with you as I am looking at inflation remaining silent before this happens. That would be more apt to happen if rates are kept low as world inflation maintains its course. It is belief that cost savings methods have about peaked. Rather like saying we are going back to solid companies incredible product competition and increased costs. If you are correct on the dollar regaining strength it will take an enormous amount of pressure off of the Euro and aid Europe's internal conditions. I do not feel it is the best move for the US. The lower value US dollar does two things it will create inflation in import costs, that will aid in decreasing the budget deficit by costs going up to meet additional price. If the dollar remains low it could very well become low enough that it will increase new business here. You will have a peak where externally caused inflation is all to visible and that will spur new growth here. I feel that external currency strength rather than increasing internal growth within a nation increases costs and decreases future value. It is this leveling off period where the world is the neighborhood store that has an entirely different labor unit cost that concerns me greatly as higher growth rates tend to trigger inflation that cannot be offset by any other means than tight currency control. Currency control I have concluded is almost impossible demand increases supply as well as dilutes value which means continued inflation. From a future value stand point of view your housing approach is excellent in my opinion. Housing prices do not drop over night. If you can find home builders that are so low cost in your area the rough average is around $37,000 national income. From my point of view I just told my son that there was a wonderful bargain he should look at for $1.2M and we both laughed. He realized I meant this was a fairly decent house for the money this has two indoor bathrooms. However, we both know seven years ago those $ would of bought three houses and most incomes have not risen thrice.