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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (17705)	12/5/2004 5:55:09 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

>>That being said, I am looking for a dollar rally because the consensus now agrees with me, so I will take the otehr side of the bet for a trade!<< I think the consensus is now for a blistering USD rally "any day" -- it's what I read most. These "contrarians" started in around DXY 87 and we keep getting new converts ... keep trying -- you'll be right eventually. Hopefully, you are shorting a currency like the euro and not gold. Since you and every "smart" analyst is now calling for a big USD rally -- what is going to be the catalyst?? I think a lot of folks don't understand that the move down in the dollar has been huge and largely irreversible given its status as a world reserve currency -- this can't be compared to time when the dollar sank before in the 80's. (I think some are even ignorant of the fact that a weaker dollar is really the unofficial "official" policy now -- it's government supported 100%.) You might make a nickel on a bounce (a retrace in the euro), but you are playing a small correction in a major downleg -- this is the problem with short-term hedge fund type thinking ... looking for one of these corrections in a major downleg -- what is the percentage in such a trade -- really?? I laugh when I see Lance Lewis is shorting gold shares again -- now there's another low percentage / high risk play. It was probably smart in January this year -- when they were scraping highs -- but a lot of these shares are nowhere near highs. I guess if he is lucky enough to nail a decline and book 10% or so and he can strut his stuff -- but there are easier trades all over the place.

To: marginmike who wrote (17705)	12/5/2004 5:59:30 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

That being said, I am looking for a dollar rally because the consensus now agrees with me, so I will take the otehr side of the bet for a trade! MM - Your position is unclear to me. 1) Are you saying that too many are looking for a bounce so it wont 2)Everyone thinks the dollar will fall so you are looking for a rally Thanks Mish

To: marginmike who wrote (17705)	12/5/2004 7:55:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

MM I think you might appreciate the 2nd hour of this financialsense.com Faber followed by a discussion of currencies

To: marginmike who wrote (17705)	12/6/2004 12:49:24 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Late in the game by which means? If you like I can PM you a copy of my bank account from 2000/1 before the EUR was ready for transactions. You may have mistaken some of my comments on short term movements of the EUR v. the USD, which are not easy to predict with accuracy. So it is also possible that many mix my posting related to my investment account v. my trading account. Further I am aware that there are some idiots and Jews haters with intellectual capacity of cockroaches on SI who tried at the time and possible still do … to insult more out of their hate of Jews and Israel than to the actual content (their ethnic background is quite clear from some very direct posts on other SI treads). As to the future of the EUR I am not as positive as I was at the time summer of 2001 and will try to diversify in other currency next year - the big question is in which. As to the longer term there are huge EZ governments liabilities to fulfill their social benefits to their aging baby boomers which my cripple their economies due to the very low fertility rate and shrinking labor pool