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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (37152)	12/6/2004 6:42:53 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206177

jim_p, what is your definition of "longer term"? You say that a catalyst to lower prices will be the LNG terminals kicking in. The first year that this will even begin to happen is more than 3 yrs. out, 2008 I believe. Even allowing for a 1 yr. anticipation of the new supply, this puts the beginning of the big downswing at '07. So I'm still not catching on how you can be bullish longer term if the beginning of the bottom is still a solid 2 years out.

To: jim_p who wrote (37152)	12/6/2004 7:00:45 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206177

jim_p, regarding the relationship of gas to oil, I believe an analogous "worst case" period to the scenario you have described would be late '01, early '02, which happens to be the last time gas went under $3. During that time, oil went under $20 for a few months, see futuresource.com . During that period gas storage was at a similar level as presently, which implies that gas would trade at a similar ratio to oil presently that it traded at in late '01/early '02. So I repeat, what has happened (or will happen) to change this relationship of gas to oil prices? I don't think anyone (other than our good buddy Freddie L.) is expecting oil to go into the 20's again.