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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (17723)	12/5/2004 9:27:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

House prices at 2003 levels By Mira Bar-Hillel, Evening Standard Property Correspondent 29 November 2004 House prices in almost half of London's boroughs are now lower than they were a year ago, research reveals today. A price fall of almost one per cent across the capital in November, following a similar drop in October, has cancelled out slight gains in the first half of the year. The biggest falls were in Camden, where the average house lost over £11,000 of its value in the past year, of which £4,000 was lost in November. Homes in Westminster lost an average £8,000 since November 2003, more than half of which happened in the past few weeks. In Kensington and Chelsea the average fall was more than £9,000 in November alone. Price monitor Hometrack has found that homes in London now cost no more than they did last November. The average London price stands at £266,400, down from a peak of £275,900 in June this year. The average time taken to sell a property has also increased again and is now six and a half weeks, up from six weeks in October. The number of times a property is viewed before an offer is made is nearly 15. "All this points towards a buyer who takes longer to make the commitment of buying a house," Hometrack says. There are also fewer buyers. While the number of homes for sale went up by 1.7 per cent, following a 5.3 per cent increase in October, the number of buyers registering with estate agents fell by 5.6 per cent on top of a 4.3 per cent decrease in October. "This growing gap between supply and demand would suggest future house price falls are likely," Hometrack says. Another effect of a weakening market is that London buyers can expect to have their offer accepted even if they bid at eight per cent below the asking price. In November prices fell fastest in the central boroughs and only marginally in the outer suburbs. Hometrack housing economist John Wriglesworth said: "The London market has been hit hard since house prices started to fall in July, with the top end of the market in particular experiencing large price falls. "With the time taken to sell and the average number of viewings increasing - while the number of buyers is reduced - the shortterm outlook is bleak and the runup to Christmas will only compound the market malaise. "We expect further house-price falls over the coming months before any recovery, which should begin in spring next year. Our London house price forecast for 2005 is for a fall of five per cent." By far the biggest winner has been Hackney, where prices are now £14,000 higher than they were a year ago, but even there they fell in November. In neighbouring Islington prices remain about £12,000 higher than a year ago, but are falling steadily. Message 20829522

To: gregor_us who wrote (17723)	12/5/2004 9:29:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

UK Home loans drop to a five-year low Jane Padgham, Evening Standard 29 November 2004 FEARS over the slowing housing market mounted today following news that mortgage demand has slumped to its lowest in nearly five years. The Bank of England said the number of mortgage approvals - loans agreed but not yet made - fell for the fifth month running to 83,000 in October, the lowest since January 2000. Economist Malcolm Barr at JP Morgan pointed out that in the weakest 12 months of the early-1990s housing downturn, approvals averaged 73,000 per month. 'The Bank data are approaching that level quite rapidly,' he said. Mortgage lending eased to £7.5bn, the lowest since March 2003. Consumer credit - borrowing via credit cards, personal loans and overdrafts - fell to £1.5bn, the lowest since April. The approvals figures support the view that the housing market is slowing sharply, but the jury is still out on whether prices will collapse or stagnate. Meanwhile, worries that predictions of a housing crash are undermining consumer confidence were soothed by news of increasing optimism. The GfK Martin Hamblin consumer confidence index registered minus four in November against minus six in October.