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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandintoes who wrote (2467)	12/6/2004 5:55:45 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Yes... since the market has been in an uptrend the last year or two, it is easy to forget just how far down some of these have gone. If you bought VERT or CMGI in early 2000, they will have to rally over 10,000% from current levels for you to break even. That is, if they manage to stay solvent. They may be heading towards delisting-land.... For many many stocks, this figure is roughly 300% or more. In fact, QQQ itself will have to ramp up 200% from here before it equals the old highs. That ain't gonna happen any time soon. Let's just say that takes 10 years (probably an optimistic figure). That means that it will have taken about 15 to 20 years just to break even (fudge-factoring in the effects of inflation). With that in mind, it makes me sick to hear people go on and on about the wisdom of buy and hold. What a sucker's game. There isn't one institution or professional trader on the face of the planet who follows that strategy... first hint of trouble, and they storm the exits. In case any further proof is needed... if you owned the S&P500 in 1929 and followed the sage "stay the course.... maintain a long time horizon" advice, your time horizon would have to have been more than 30 years just to break even (after factoring in very roughly the effects of inflation). That might be great advice for people whose lifespans are several centuries. Mine is not. T