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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (22104)	12/6/2004 11:57:38 AM
From: Jamey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81145

I'm referring to the parabolic graph in the report and how the present secular gold bull will react. Gold will disconnect from the $USD as the bull progresses in stage ll. "The first important thing to note on this secular gold bull graph is the typical parabolic shape of a secular gold bull. All secular bulls that ultimately culminate in bubbles exhibit this distinctive pattern of price increases continuously accelerating over time. As this yellow parabola shows, this acceleration is almost imperceptible in the early years, picks up dramatically in the middle years, and is breathtaking in the final years. This pattern was also witnessed in both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 as well during their own recent secular bulls. The left axis of this graph corresponds to the blue line of the Great Gold Bull of the 1970s. Interestingly, since we used monthly data, this 1970s gold bull is even a bit understated. While the all-time monthly high close for gold is under $700 as this graph shows, gold actually soared to $850 per ounce briefly in January 1980 at the top of its last mania! The right axis defines the red line, which is our current gold bull to date from January 2001 to today in monthly terms. As you can see, the early slopes of this gold bull and the early years of the 1970s Great Gold Bull match remarkably well. Today, just as gold did from 1970 to 1973, it is once again stealthily climbing the initial modest upslope of the yellow parabola. If our current specimen continues to hold the course plotted before it in the 1970s, gold will ultimately trade over thousands of dollars per ounce before this decade ends! I believe the key to understanding this parabolic shape that all secular bulls ending in bubbles assume is to understand the changing investment demand profiles throughout a secular bull. The constantly accelerating parabolic profile is driven by shifting investment demand over the life of a secular bull. The higher an investment price gets, the higher demand grows and a positive feedback loop is created. Stages One, Two, and Three of a secular gold bull are defined by the two major slope changes in this standard secular-bull parabolic ascent. Each stage, considered in turn, makes perfect sense when described in terms of global investor demand." zealllc.com James