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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (17758)	12/6/2004 9:20:08 AM
From: zonder	Respond to of 116555

UK Manufacturing Output Fails To Reflect Survey Optimism UK Industrial output once again disappointed on the downside and confounded the optimism evident in for example, the CIPS (PMI) survey. Industrial output fell in October for the 5th consecutive month. Market consensus had been anticipating a 0.4% m/m increase in the October reading. Weakness was broadly-based. Of the industry groupings, only one (chemicals) showed any dynamism on the 3 month/3month rate which is the best guide to underlying momentum. On a monthly basis there were sharp falls in transport equipment industries (-2.6%) and electrical and optical (-1.4%). Conclusions: Q4 is off to a weak start as far as UK industry is concerned. The recovery signalled by the optimistic survey evidence is not at all yet in sight. Recent currency developments (particularly GBP strength versus the US dollar will further limit the dynamism of any recovery. These data are a small positive for the doves on the MPC but we do not see a near-term easing of policy as likely.