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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17814)	12/6/2004 6:30:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Is this POS on your radar? Circuit City dives, pulls retail index with it ($RLX) By Jennifer Waters CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Circuit City Stores (CC) shares dropped 8 percent, or $1.28, to $14.93, in early trading Monday after reporting a surprising sales drop for the third quarter. That pulled on the sector's main measure. The S&P Retail Index ($RLX) slipped by 0.2 percent to 453.26. Minyanville ripped this new release to shreds today newsroom.circuitcity.com

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (17814)	12/6/2004 8:00:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Max Pain I said I would look at it over the weekend but I failed to do so. Usually someone asks, probably more so if I freely volunteer. No one did. Is anyone watching this indicator anymore? Well here goes QQQ max pain is 38 iqauto.com cboe.com Ther are just way way too many puts at 38 for it to break that. If for some reason we do, there is going to be one H of a crash. I doubt it. We are stretched. Personally I do not think a close significantly above 40 is a strong liklihood. Just a guess. Short term predictions are even more prone to error than long term predictions. Of notable interest is Jan max pain at 35. OI is very high too. Is everyone finally giving up on on a Naz selloff and betting heavily on a year end rally? It seems that way to me. Call OI exceeds put OI at every strike from 35-41 except 36. This could change after dec expiry but I am not sure if it will. We have not seen more bets on the call side than the put side all year long. Please bear in mind that there can be significant changes in Jan OI after DEC expiry. If we head lower into dec expiry and call buying continues I think we head downtown unto Jan expiry. INTC DEC strike 25 118K calls 16K puts DEC strike 22.5 105K calls 51K puts JAN strike 25 195K calls 65K puts JAN strike 22.5 103K calls 74K puts CSCO DEC strike 20 133K calls 27K puts JAN strike 20 148K calls 72K puts C DEC strike 45 56K calls 26K puts DEC strike 47.5 51K calls 11K puts JAN strike 45 65K calls 67K puts JAN strike 47.5 49K calls 11K puts MSFT DEC strike 27 71K calls 35K puts DEC strike 24.5 42K calls 66K puts JAN strike 27 338K calls 174K puts JAN strike 24.5 288K calls 174K puts We have not seen this many call bets this entire year (relative to puts). Does that mean we go down? No. Does it increase the odds if there is any kind of catalyst? You bet. Mish