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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56989)	12/6/2004 9:18:34 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, I have you people marked, so I'll chime in to respond to your question about energy. If you invert a graph of oil inventories and plot against price, there's a good correlation. That correlation diverged about march of this year. Historically, the current level of inventory supports $31 oil. So the question is "Does oil command a $12 terror premium?" I think not. Also, consider what would happen if 150 million barrels were added to current inventories. I bring this up because this is how much has been added to the US's SPR over the past 4 years. Those additions are over, save another 15million barrels. Demand to fill the SPR is going away in a few months, because it will be full at 700million barrels (a glorious waste of taxpayer money - but some like to hoard). If you're looking for a hot area, try biotech. There's a plethora of significant events on the horizon for US biotech firms (critical trials, fda approval, etc.)