Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56991)	12/7/2004 1:37:40 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, here is what I am thinking: In 2005 the echo bubble we are in right now will burst. The result will be stagflation, with the emphasis on stagnation rather than inflation. The trigger will be the peaking of the US housing bubble. If houses continue on their current merry way, i will be wrong. The dollar is undervalued relative to the Euro, neutral relative to AUD and CAD, and overvalued relative to most Asian currencies. I don't consider myself a perma-bear on the US. I think the US has great potential, under the right political leadership. But the leadership stinks (that goes for both Republicans and Democrats). A crisis may wake us up. The theme for my portfolio is capital preservation. As of today I raised cash to 74% and hedged the stock portion with QQQQ puts (actually I am now overhedged and net short the NDX). With a record low in market volatility, even in the face of heightened geopolitical danger and gross economic imbalances, buying put options right now is a good way to hedge, IMO. My evolving position is described in these posts: Message 20730781 Message 20775599 Message 20758819 Message 20761430 Message 20775599 Message 20776130 This morning I sold my UBB (Brazilian bank) and reduced FAX, BTE, and PMT to bring cash to 74%. I intend to convert my Euro cash position to dollars within the next few weeks.