Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (17860)	12/7/2004 2:16:52 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Japan Oct household spending down real 2.0 pct yr-on-yr, 3rd drop in 5 months Tuesday, December 7, 2004 5:26:43 AM afxpress.com TOKYO (AFX) - Household spending in Japan fell a real 2.0 pct in October from a year earlier, the third decline in five months, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said Compared to the previous month, spending fell a seasonally adjusted 2.0 pct On a nominal basis, overall household spending in October fell 1.4 pct from a year earlier. Household spending averaged 297,106 yen in October A pick-up in consumer spending is being counted on to keep the Japanese recovery on track as the previous engines of growth sputter Earlier this month the government said in a preliminary report that the economy barely grew in the July-September quarter, owing to a slowdown in export growth and a drop in corporate capital spending, the two major driving forces behind the nation's longest growth spurt in 13 years Instead, increasing private consumption drove what little growth occurred in the last quarter But last week the Ministry of Finance released results of a quarterly survey of corporate conditions, showing capital spending during the July-September quarter rose more strongly than previously believed Many economists now expect the government to announce tomorrow it has revised upward its estimate of growth last quarter

To: ild who wrote (17860)	12/7/2004 2:20:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japan Oct leading index at 20.0; 2nd month below boom/bust line - Tuesday, December 7, 2004 6:15:26 AM afxpress.com (Adds details) TOKYO (XFN-Asia) - Japan's index of leading economic indicators stood at 20.0 for October, the second consecutive month it was below the boom-or-bust line, according to preliminary data issued by the Cabinet Office A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion over the next three to six months, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. In September the leading index fell below 50 for the first time in 18 months The preliminary reading for October was projected at 20.0, according to the median estimate of forecasts received from 18 research houses in a poll by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. The forecasts ranged from 11.1 to 22.2 The continued weakness of the leading index is certain to heighten concern over the outlook for the world's second-largest economy, which was already struggling to maintain an export-driven recovery before the dollar began dropping sharply against the yen in October Last month the government said in a preliminary report that the economy barely grew in the July-September quarter, owing to a slowdown in export growth and a drop in corporate capital spending, the two major driving forces behind the nation's longest growth spurt in 13 years But last week the Ministry of Finance released results of a quarterly survey of corporate conditions, showing capital spending during the July-September quarter rose more strongly than previously believed Many economists now expect the government to announce tomorrow it has revised upward its estimate of growth last quarter. But financial markets might be inclined to ignore that news with forward-looking indicators looking so weak. The leading index is based on 12 indicators, of which data for 10 were available for October, with eight pointing toward contraction. For September, the leading index was revised up to 33.3, based on data from all 12 indicators. The coincident index, which measures the current state of the economy, was put at 11.1 for October, the third straight month below the boom-or-bust line after 15 consecutive months above it. The preliminary reading for October is based on data for 9 of the 11 indicators used to compute the index The coincident index was forecast at 11.1 in the Nikkei poll. The forecasts ranged from 11.1 to 22.2 For September the coincident index was revised up to 36.4, based on data from all 11 indicators The lagging index for October stands at 75.0, based on three of the six indicators used to compute it For September the lagging index, which shows the state of the economy three months ago, was put at 83.3 based on all six indicators

To: ild who wrote (17860)	12/7/2004 2:28:49 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

The 12 eurozone members have urged the US to take action to address the "excessive volatility" of exchange rate movements seen in recent months. In a thinly veiled reference to the US, the 12 finance ministers have called for "all major countries" to put policies in place to tackle the issue. Eurozone members want the US to rectify its huge trade and budget deficits. ...... EU finance ministers want the US to take action to rein in its widening current account shortfall. "It is unacceptable that Europe should pay the bill for major imbalances in the world economy, especially in the (deficits) in the US," Austrian Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser was quoted as saying by Agence France Presse. 'Slide must stop' Earlier on Monday, French Finance Minister Herve Gaymard, said the slide in the dollar against the euro "should not continue". Mr Gaymard said it was a matter for US and Asian monetary authorities, as well as European. German workers The weak dollar is hurting European economies including Germany "The euro has increased in value since its creation by almost 60% compared to the dollar, since we were at about 80 euro centimes and we are at 1.34 or so at the moment," he told LCI television. "This slide should not continue. "It is obvious that the solution, as you well know, is not only in Europe, it is also in the attitude of the American monetary authorities and also in that of the Asian monetary authorities." Twin deficits In Asia, traders are watching for signs the Bank of Japan would sell its currency and financial authorities there stepped up their rhetoric. Economists warn that the dollar is likely to continue weakening, because of the so-called "twin deficits" of the US economy. Both the US Government's budget and the current account - the measure of the difference between financial flows going in and out of the country - are deep in the red. As a result, the US needs to suck in as much as $2.5bn in investment each day, creating a buyer's market for dollar assets and pushing the greenback lower. news.bbc.co.uk