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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Golconda who wrote (57009)	12/7/2004 8:04:47 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Anton, <<small portion of Ocean Wilsons @ ... 10% for 5 days holding>> Nice. Running with loot in toll is not a crime. <<prospects for the equity mkt ... useful to look at the US Treasury mkt ... weak US$ may hit the US treasury with rising interest rates, a disaster for a debt-fuelled economy ... massive slowdown in the US>> ... Concur. <<discounted cash flow techniques to value US equities>> ... quaint notion :0) <<India rather than China ... real estate possible (a REIT is under discussion))>> ... sign me up for this program when known. <<Steel>> ... don't like this as LTBH, but short run, perhaps, as in maybe. <<... various specific US steel processors should do well>> ... cheaper dollar should be good for something, else for naught. <<Malaysia - improved(?) political situation, low PE, rising foreign reserves leading eventually to repeg before china,current REIT has some issues but property fundementally cheap,resource economy (Rowe Evans?),chinese tourists (Genting casinos?)>> ... Agree, but will double check with others in better position to know, and will report back. Chugs, Jay

To: Golconda who wrote (57009)	12/8/2004 8:59:29 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Anton, as promised, checking on steel and Malaysia and etc ... from another ... to take into consideration as far as directions and possibilities are concerned QUOTE More likely to short a steel producer in Australia. The A$ is killing them. Can't get real excited about steel for more than 1 year at the most. I'm not focusing on it. Think that the European economy will roll over if we get to 1.40, thus intervention at that level. Note what the Canadians said last night. That the appreciation of the C$ has done the work for them. No more rate hikes. I think this is important. Low PE's in Malaysia? Where? Real Estate in India? The only good quality developers in India are private. I've yet to hear of any decent public ways to play India real estate. I'm thinking Thai tourism over Malaysian tourism. At least if the Baht stays around 40. That's because Thai companies(well, one in particular) is much cheaper than Malaysian plays. Think the US 10-year is over-valued, but its been that way for quite a while. What is the catalyst? China HAS to keep buying, and I think Japan will up it again if the yen gets even cheaper. Europeans are screaming about the Euro. Who are the big buyers? Asian Central Banks. Face it, the cheap currencies in the world are all in Asia. UNQUOTE Chugs, Jay P.S. In the mean nasty time, we can do the obvious and easy trade, namely, wait for gold to get smashed, starting now, and buy at 390 and below.