Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_derrick who wrote (22571)	12/7/2004 8:01:10 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

The Worden Report (Tuesday, December 7, 2004) Adding the Senior-Secondary Trend I have decided to resolve the problem of how many trends exist on a chart in a simple and obvious way. Rather than constantly changing the time frame, I'll classify as many trends as I can see on a daily bar chart. Actually, throughout the year, there have been four identifiable trends. This is something I hadn't been expecting when I introduced the Assumptions Table. I made the mistake of trying to bend the chart to fit patterns rather than simply accepting the patterns as they stood. The four identifiable patterns are 1) Short-term or Minor Trend, 2) Intermediate Trend, 3) Senior-Secondary Trend and 4) Primary Trend. As of today, the Short-term trends for all three averages have turned down. The appearance of the Dow Chart suggests that its Intermediate Trend could turn down very soon. This is also true of the SP-500, although it isn't as close to succumbing as the Dow. Based on these classifications, and using the Dow as the example, we had a Senior-Secondary Top in the first quarter of this year. However, it wasn't interpretable until May. However, we did have a series of Intermediate Upmoves and Downmoves before then. The Senior-Secondary Downtrend (consisting of a further series of Intermediate Uptrends and Downtrends) persisted until November when September's Intermediate top was taken out. We are now in a Primary Uptrend, a Senior-Secondary Uptrend, a fragile Intermediate Uptrend and a Short-term Downtrend for all three of the averages covered in the table. -DW Assessing the Pullback If the Dow closes below approximately 10,330, it will be in an Intermediate Downtrend. The Senior-Secondary Uptrend wouldn't be reversed without a close below the October low. However, this could change. Should the Dow now decline, say about to the 50-day MA (quite possible), and then rally but falter short of the December high, the low of the decline to the MA would become the level of no return for the Senior-Secondary Uptrend. A similar situation exists for the SP-500, but it should be noted that it has a considerably stronger pattern than the Dow. The Nasdaq-100 is stronger than either of them and is in no immediate danger of falling into an Intermediate decline. That doesn't mean there isn't room for a substantial setback. This was a horrendous day in the market without much to blame it on. Breadth readings are more lopsidedly bearish than I have seen in a long time. The Leadership Index had over a thousand declines. I haven't seen anything comparable since April. The Dow had only two winners, the Nasdaq-100 only six, the SP-500 only 51. Take care. -DW ASSUMPTIONS Primary Trend: UP Senior-Secondary Trend: UP Intermediate Trend: UP Minor Trend: DOWN