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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith J who wrote (37205)	12/7/2004 11:16:49 AM
From: buckbldr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

Keith, Que, and Ed Adj,---Am hopeful that you apparently knowledgeable posters keep this NG discussion going, in an effort that lesser savvy observers can discern with more certainty the intermediate direction of NG prices and, more importantly for my and Frank's benefit, the potential outcome of heavy long positions in PTEN. In the face of the inexorable high NG prices thru the shoulder and an early potentially mild winter phase of this mkt, I feel this discussion is of great value for investors in these sectors, who can hopefully make some profitable executions in their portfolios as we enter the winter season. Am back from a very enjoyable 12 days aboard cruise ship Galaxy which sailed from Galveston to Panama Canal and back. Needless to say that my intermittent monitoring of this sector at .75 a minute on ship's computers did keep my dauber dragging a bit this past 12 days. So am anxious to take early remedial actions to recover some of my paper losses. Thanks for your contributions. Buck

To: Keith J who wrote (37205)	12/7/2004 7:13:40 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206184

Keith, I dont know where you get your demand assumptions but I would not rely on Robry for that. His storage data is clearly a very reliable, accurate and invaluable estimate though. I do not know there are many combinations of factors that could contribute to the present S/D imbalance. Perhaps many wells were held back to be placed in service once November began, Perhaps the November/December futures price has industries operating at reduced capacity, perhaps NG fired generation plants are priced out of the market now, where they might have been operated for system stability requirements when NG was cheaper, The only thing that matters now is that we have about 6 weeks of very poor draws and the Winter has given every indication that it will be a mild one. I do not think we will get any quick change in Robry data that would not allow us to respond and reload. If this weather starts giving signs of substantial improvement in daily draws we can reload. The downside here may be worse than anyone can imagine. I also suspect OPEC is punch drunk and may need a good scare to get production down. Yes I hate to say it but OPEC is not irrelevant and there evidently is enough supply now that we need a cartel.