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To: xxreno who wrote (37209)12/7/2004 7:30:15 PM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206184
 
The question will be how long can E&P's pay those margins and what ng prices will be required?

Suppose storage ends at 1,400 bcf on 4/1 and that the vast majority of this S/D imbalance has been price sensitive demand waiting for $5-6 NG.

My guess is that NG prices will be going down below $6 to find some customers for Q1 2005.

Last time land drillers day rates spiked we ended up with record storage levels because of a mild Winter and then Summer. Geez, we just had the mild Summer, a spike in day rates and now we are well on our way having a warm Winter to end with high storage levels.

I am confidant of $5-6 ng in 2005 at this point, but when to reload 100% remains to be determined. I think OIH 75 gets tested here shortly.

If you were going to sell would you do it when it was very cold in December or when it was warm in January with high storage levels?



To: xxreno who wrote (37209)12/7/2004 10:31:04 PM
From: Spekulatius  Respond to of 206184
 
There is a word for that additional $1000. It is profit.. Per last quarterly report, PTEN has converted roughly 50% of the dayrate increase into profit (before tax) not 100%:

We also achieved sequential quarterly increases in our average revenue per operating day to $10,400 from $10,190 and our average margin per operating day to $3,320 from $2,920."
biz.yahoo.com



To: xxreno who wrote (37209)1/11/2005 6:10:07 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206184
 
xxreno, I noticed the Jan. bid week natgas price is not shown the chart of Bid Week Prices linked from Oilviews yet. Wondering if I could trouble you for that #. Also, any way I could get you to continue to share that info each month? It really is very helpful to me, I can guess at the number but its better to be able to see it nicely laid out in a chart, etc.