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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_derrick who wrote (22583)	12/7/2004 10:59:19 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Derrick, I think people who basically believe the market is fundamentally driven have the same reaction to most technical talk. After several years of study (and knowing I have decades more to learn) one thing in my learning has emerged. You will profit most, in any time frame, if you can figure out whether a specific instrument is in a trend or not. And a trend is simply a direction, up or down, steep, middling or relatively flat, that an instrument is more likely than not to continue on. Once you can determine this (it is deceptively easy to say and incredibly hard to do), then you can make money. Don Worden's reports are really takes on where the trend is, and where the trends are. I didn't find it doublespeak, actually, and I don't think a close examination will reveal that, either. He is picking out various inflection points in the averages, identifying where support and resistance are likely to be. The Dow is looking very weak, the SP-500 is a little (but not much) better, and the Naz is giving off neutral signals. It's also similar analysis to what Lowry's is saying in their report today. In this market, there is almost no guidance, short, medium or long term, from fundamental indicators and information. The dollar is falling, interest rates are bound to rise, real estate is a bubble, the economy is mending, consumer spending has stayed strong, personal and national debt levels are astounding, the Chinese are taking over the world's manufacturing base, the Indians are taking over the world's service sector base, our global companies still own the lion's share of world pizza and hamburgers. This isn't information, it's a comedy of paralysis. The only questions an investor/trader/punter should be asking are, "Can I identify a trend/non trend in an instrument I'd like to trade (or trade derivatives on)?" and "Will the general market support me or work against me in that decision?" I liked the signals CL was giving early this morning and bought some call options on it. I felt I could answer both questions above in the affirmative on this instrument. Kb