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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (25695)12/8/2004 10:00:54 AM
From: OblomovRespond to of 306849
 
One seldom-discussed fact is that the main reason for the surge in deficits in the early 80s was the dramatic fall in inflation. The debt was effectively being monetized in the late 70s, but that came to an end when the Fed finally demonstrated its resolve in ending the inflationary cycle. This isn't an excuse for deficits after, say, 1983, but it does explain why part of the massive tax cuts of '81 had to be given up in late '82.

Note that the federal debt's % of GDP bottomed out at about the same time as inflation. In many ways, we (meaning both the US Congress and individuals) are still operating under the assumption of inflation. The evidence of this is the federal and individual savings rates.



To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (25695)12/8/2004 1:00:31 PM
From: John VosillaRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
<But, yes that's the really sad part. During the really hard years when Carter was President the debt didn't grow>

Yet real estate went up a lot before Volcker came on board. I guess it comes down to ultra easy monetary policy creates massive misallocation of capital that always get corrected the next downturn. Only this time it appears to be all most all asset classes are looking down from the top of Mt Everest with only a few exceptions.