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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (23097)	12/8/2004 3:41:01 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Dec 08 2004 15:26 trotsky (Hambone@Wall Street fundamentalists) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i think the point worthy of critique is that they are ALWAYS bullish ( not true for the gold sector of course -g- ) , regardless of whether it is advisable or not. naturally they will be right as long as a bull market is in force, but they will lose their clients gains subsequently ( see A.J. Cohen's 87% drawdown ) . Date: Wed Dec 08 2004 15:21 trotsky (Earl@MDG) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it has one of the best looking put/call OI distributions in the sector plus a ton of it is sold short. iow., it may end up surprising us. possibly entering a consolidation period to allow the m/a's to catch up? Date: Wed Dec 08 2004 15:16 trotsky (Raja) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved in brief: 1. money flows have been positive about 70-80% of the time since the May lows were hit. 2. gold sector component put/call OI remains close to a 52 week high. 3. short selling of PM stocks has increased sharply again after a brief dip in Sept. 4. the tax loss selling period is close to ending conclusion is that the medium term trend should be UP, not down, in spite of the recent chart damage. Date: Wed Dec 08 2004 15:09 trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there's a name for the fundamentalist who 'looks down the line'. it's 'technician'. -vbg- after all, what else are the markets doing when they e.g. top when all the fundamental news is just splendid? they're 'looking down the line'. i think Prechter has actually the best idea: market direction is a function of the 'social mood'. recognize the direction the social mood is moving in, and you will know which way the markets will go over the long term. Date: Wed Dec 08 2004 14:59 trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved ""Which type of technical information would have told you in 1998 that the stock of Yahoo was about to rise by about 8000% over the next two years?" well, obviously there was none that would have predicted the extent of the rise, but plenty that would have kept you long throughout most of it, in spite of the ridiculous fundamental overvaluation. to name the most important: a strong , clearly identifiable trend and a healthy dose of skepticism evident in market participants positioning data ( i.e. a huge short position and very large put open interest vs. call open interest ) . my point was of course NOT that technicals could have predicted the size of the advance - merely that fundamentals would have served to deem it virtually impossible, while strictly adhering to the technicals allowed you to participate in most of the advance.

To: ild who wrote (23097)	12/8/2004 4:05:17 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Wish I could remember which technician it was who called for QCOM to go to 1,000 when it hit 400 that was Walt Piecyk of Paine Weber, trying to pull a Henry Blodget. QCOM went up like 125 points that day, and i was long QCOM calls with 100% of my money. my best day ever in the market, so i have a soft spot for Walt -g-. btw, over the month following Piecyk's call, QCOM doubled to 800 (equivalent to 100 now after splits). i heard that some market makers had trouble due to all the calls sold at around the 400 mark.