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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (4388)	12/9/2004 12:53:24 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12410

More of just cautious. Most seem to be thinking minor pullback, then rally into end of year then big decline in late winter or early spring. Norm is mostly bearish. I feel the same as most in that we aren't done quite yet though I did get weekly sell signals last week so my system says we likely topped for a little while here. If we get a higher low, I will likely go long again. I am not looking short until later down the road. Year end tax break buying for corporations my give us a bit more of decent numbers before industrial capital spending drops off the cliff. Commodities are dropping hard so the buying spree of rich farmers updating tractors should hurt also unless China ramps up food imports again. Also, if you haven't seen these charts, they are spelling trouble in paradise...... consumer plans to buy a new car lowest ever recorded.... idorfman.com consumer plans to buy a home lowest since 94 idorfman.com consumer plans to buy a new appliance lowest since 95 idorfman.com Of course every time we think J6P is finally tapped out, they find a new way to buy on credit. Good Luck, Lee EDIT - Just saw your post and recall we are always pointing out the bad FA over there but trading wise, I have been seeing a lot on my site going long and not many playing the short side. We always talk the "this will end bad someday due to debt, quality of earnings, insider selling etc" but shorter term, as I said, my impression is most think minor pullback then higher into end of year.