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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (18228)	12/9/2004 6:08:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

RodgerRafter on my board on the FOOL talks about it all the time. Rien from the EU says they are doing the damn same thing over there(which of course is what you told me). I did posts on that today. We both know full well what Japan is doing. And of course it is impossible to bet on the RMB. Actually the EU is slightly different. They are printing like hotcakes, just no one wants to use it so it seems. But like Japan they are trying like mad (just not as mad as Japan). The UK looks sick as of late. Has the pound topped? If housing collapses there I think it has. So from a currency standpoint are any of these things any good? Now of course the whole world can not convert all this cash into NZ$ or OZ$ or CA$ so where does it go? Yes I realize I am making an inflation argument for you cause I am not stupid. But all this depends on the US consumers spending this money. Let's watch housing. I really believe US consumer spending and housing are about to collapse. If they do the FED will panic. Also note that the US$ can not simply just sink forever as it just causes too many problems elsewhere. There were big big warning signs on gold and silver these past few days and I posted some technical warnings about what would happen if gold broke 350. Too much speculative long interest in gold and silver. Hope the F you cashed out futures if you had some. I did a post on the FOOL (did I do one here too do not remember) on intervention. Right before it happened. I could sense it but was too chicken to short metals and was shocked at the devastation the next day. Well from bitter experience I know better than to catch a big plunge in silver and sure enough there was yet another one today. One more for the road? I am hoping silver goes back to 6.20. Why not? At any rate you know damn well where I am coming from. Gold and silver will keep getting hammered like this. Very tough to buy futures and just hold them. Shorting stocks has been a disaster, and bond bears shorting breakdowns still have not learned their lessons. 80% short sentiment heading into a jobs number with leading indicators pointing down and consumer sentiment UNEXPECTEDLY falling like a rock called for bad jobs. Bond bears were begging to bet crushed if for nothing else but technical reasons. After all this rant I am not even sure I properly answered your question, but yes some people but not a lot of them are talking about monetization. I believe it is one reason that Paul Kasriel forecasts a pause followed by more hikes. Not positive about that as it is easy to forget exact contexts. (The current economic numbers call for a CUT, the insane spending calls for hikes. solution: pause first) All that said, there is no doubt the whole system is totally f*cked up. I am 100% sure you agree with that! Mish