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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suma who wrote (25789)	12/9/2004 8:26:45 PM
From: Mike Johnston	Respond to of 306849

A hot market right now is Vegas. I just returned from there and 6000 people a month are moving there from California. Most of those people are not moving to Vegas because they want to. Given inflated prices and lack of affordability in their home state, they have to. These are pretty scary times for those who do not own a home. The question is, with only 11 % of San Diego residents being able to afford an average house, how many more people can Vegas absorb with development already pushing against the canyons and before drinking water supply is constrained ? Many homeowners would not be able to afford the very house they are living in if they were buying it now at today's prices.

To: Suma who wrote (25789)	12/9/2004 8:43:01 PM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

TOL +6 today If i knew nothing else, just looking at the chart of TOL i would say that this is a beginning of the bubble. I am beginning to think that the bubble will not be pricked by rising rates (they should be rising but are not ), but rather by the dollar being destroyed, denominated and replaced. Since the "New Dollar" would not be subject to the same excesses, mortgage lending would go back to 20-30% downpayments, 25% housing payment to income and "normal" interest rates. There are only two scenarios: 1. Rates rise sharply. 2. If the Fed would not allow rates to rise, the dollar will be destroyed.

To: Suma who wrote (25789)	12/9/2004 8:45:16 PM
From: David Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Well we had a poster here that had three Las Vegas homes under contract. Someone asked him to keep the thread updated but he b gone. Maybe the drop off of sales and prices in Vegas has him busy working to close on those three homes? And one doesn't need to go to Vegas for such appreciation. I posted earlier California's city by city numbers many of which are 30-50 percent. If one wanted desert the county of Madera got 45 percent which amazes me.