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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (2571)	12/9/2004 10:31:32 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 8752

That $35/barrel figure is "not counting inflation" but still projects a significant drop in oil over the next 20 years. That presumes some things that I think are questionable, and certainly entail considerable uncertainties at this point. A $35/barrel price implies either decreased demand, increased supply, or both. The increased supply part is possible, but limited, because the cost of bringing new deposits to market will eventually tend to discourage producers from doing so, because it just won't be worth it. The decreased demand part is also possible, but this would require a prolonged global economic slowdown. Not impossible.... There is at least one factor that could cause a significant and prolonged suppression of oil prices: a fundamental shift in energy dependence away from petroleum. Personally, I think this is the only realistic long-term solution. If we remain virtually completely dependent upon petroleum, then in about 50 years (plus or minus 10 years), all the worlds' proven oil deposits will have been totally exhausted, and we will have to close up shop and park all our cars forever. Any residual oil found will likely be prohibitively expensive due to drastically decreased supply. This will also tend to work against the $35/barrel figure, because as the world's reserves are depleted, price will gradually rise, and probably this will be somewhat exagerrated since the dilemma is not a temporary drop in supply, and the markets will discount this fact more and more as the end gets closer. This scenario also carries a lot of uncertainties... for example, we know the extent of the proven reserves, but we don't know the extent of the total reserves. But regardless, I maintain that a shift from petroleum dependency is the only viable long-term solution. Oil can drop to $1/barrel and stay there, and we can pump out every single last drop of oil, but the fundamental problem (we are dependent on a resource that is limited and finite) will not be solved at all. It will just be cheaper getting to the end of the road. JMVHO.... T

To: Vendit™ who wrote (2571)	12/11/2004 6:47:39 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

More on Iraqi oil: biz.yahoo.com Associated Press Attacks Blamed for Iraq's Fuel Shortages Saturday December 11, 2:26 pm ET By Sameer N. Yacoub, Associated Press Writer Iraqi Oil Minister Blames Rebel Attacks for Worsening Fuel Shortages Ahead of Election BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Iraq's oil minister on Saturday blamed insurgents for the country's worsening fuel shortages, saying saboteurs have targeted the oil industry to increase pressure ahead of the Jan. 30 elections. The fuel shortage -- ironic in a country with some of the world's largest petroleum reserves -- has embarrassed Iraq's interim government. Other services also are barely functioning. Electricity supplies remain erratic, with frequent outages plaguing the Baghdad and other cities. Lines at gas stations in Baghdad stretch for miles, forcing some drivers to wait for 18 hours before reaching the pumps. Although the official price of gasoline is about 5 cents a gallon, it can reach 50 cents on the black market. Oil Minister Thamir Ghadbhan laid the blame for the shortages on the rebels. "They want to make fuel shortages, (provoke) chaos in the country and prove the government has failed," Ghadbhan told a news conference. Exports from Iraq's northern oil fields resumed Saturday, after insurgents last month blew up part of the main pipeline carrying Iraqi crude to Turkey. An official from the state-run Northern Oil Co., speaking on condition of anonymity, said 500,000 barrels of crude will be pumped daily from northern Iraq oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The pipeline connecting the northern Kirkuk oil fields with Ceyhan was blown up Nov. 15 near Safra, 40 miles southwest of Kirkuk. The attack shut down oil exports from the north. Iraq was pumping an average of 400,000 barrels of crude a day through Turkey before a series of sabotages in early November. In that month, there were 27 attacks against pipelines, compared to only two attacks in February, Ghadbhan said. Insurgents have repeatedly targeted the country's crucial oil infrastructure in a bid to undermine the U.S.-backed interim government. The Oil Ministry said that between August and October, Iraq lost $7 billion in potential revenues due to sabotage. About 750,000 foreign cars are estimated to have come from neighboring countries since the fall of Saddam Hussein last year, and fuel consumption for the past year has soared to 12 million gallons. Ghadbhan also accused criminal gangs of stealing large quantities of Iraqi oil by punching holes into the unguarded oil pipelines and then smuggling stolen oil out of the country. "This has affected the operations in Basra refinery and the pumping of oil products to several parts in the country" he said. Ghadbhan urged security forces to take additional measures to secure the network of pipelines.