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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (18289)	12/10/2004 8:33:31 AM
From: zonder	Respond to of 116555

Nov. PPI out at 0.5% vs 0.1% expected. Is that the deflation you were waiting for? :-)

To: mishedlo who wrote (18289)	12/10/2004 8:44:01 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116555

Rafter's analysis is exceptional, probably better than mine actually, hope you post more of his work? I don't tend to pay as much attention to US money supply as he appears to though, as I consider global dollar based liquidity more important and that's tough to measure. Regarding his comment: <My own best guess is that after talking things over, the Fed will: A. Stick to their 25 basis point per meeting "measured" rate hikes. B. Significantly slow their rate reserve purchases of notes over 90 days and let them rise. C. Issue more hawkish language intended to support the dollar as a way of fighting inflation. D. Boast about the economy's robust growth as cover for continued rate hikes.> That would be the sensible thing to do, and if item B happened especially, I think you would see a big drop in about everything, lead by Bully's plays. Message 20845191 But then I look at "what's actually happening on the ground", and see them in an recent very accelerated feeding frenzy of money printing. Message 20843501 Just going back to "normal" or trend will be quite a heroin withdrawal for Bully. So I think the Wizards will continue to operate "under the cover of darkness" especially since Bully's systematic loot is heading for it's Gottdamerrung finale. Thus the real meat of easy money, item B may actually be accelerated even more. Rates at these nominal levels (2.25, 2.50. etc) in a high inflation environment, won't matter one iota to Bully, he can still go nuts with his inflationary economy wrecking behaviors. This is where I completely disagree with your assessment of the little rate increases we've seen so far. Therefore I think they will continue to rape non-Bully (inflation's non and late receivers, the losers in big inflations) and transfer their remaining wealth to Bully. Message 20816460 Message 20829497 There is no strong political movement in the US to protect real people at the expense of Bully, like perhaps there is in the UK, and places like Australia. Even a guy like Ralph Nadar has been successfully marginalized. Regards your comment on UK being in big trouble; I don't see it that way at all, they are reigning in Bully over there. In the end they may still have a currency, and a surviving lower and middle class.