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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (18331)12/10/2004 1:02:13 PM
From: ild  Respond to of 116555
 
Bring it on, right now! (I still have some Dec poots) -g/ng-



To: mishedlo who wrote (18331)12/10/2004 1:04:43 PM
From: philv  Respond to of 116555
 
Mish, your point No. 6:
"The fed pumps money into the system (or attempts to), but there are no borrowers that banks want to lend to. Across the board, lending collapses."

This is what actually happened in Japan. Japanese solution: The government will spend for the people! They embarked upon an enormous public expenditure program (roads, bridges, airports etc.) to goose the economy. Result: Highest per capita debt, much higher than the U.S. But their own population is socking away their savings and have one of the highest savings rates.

No doubt, if there are no borrowers, this is the next phase for the U.S. In other words, even greater debt. Unfortunately, the borrowing will have to come from abroad as the US savings is miniscule.



To: mishedlo who wrote (18331)12/10/2004 6:48:11 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 116555
 
>>6)The fed pumps money into the system (or attempts to), but there are no borrowers that banks want to lend to. Across the board, lending collapses.<<

we have the first part of 6) already in progress Mish -- I guess we need to watch the lending numbers -- consumer credit numbers we just got are lagged a month -- is that right?? October??

I think the consumer has already hit the wall. I don't think those CI graphs are some kind of anomaly.