DAK
Actually I think the Oanda charts are better:
You can add gold, silver and then track in several currencies, save baskets here:
oanda.com
You're right about gold vs Yen the last year:
Copy and paste this link, click relative change and then change the time from month to year.
oanda.com
If you put Gold (oz) as the base (they use XAU, which is confusing, but it is the gold price not the index) and then select the predefined currency baskets you can assess performance.
I measured currencies in their baskets (as well as a few I created) in % change against gold 1/1/04 to present. I know that if I went back further gold's performance would be stronger, but I wanted to put this recent move into perspective since quite a few analysts and groups have been calling a breakout, when, if you look at
Some (DEM, ITL, FRF, BEF, ESP, GRD, ATS, NLG, EU, BGL, NGN, CAD, IEP, DKK, SIT, FIM) were only marginally positive or negative:
G7 basket: 5/7 outperformed gold (ITL,FRF,CAD,GBP, DEM positive vs gold, USD JPY negative) Note: Oanda has these pre-EU baskets which I used as-is. The EU was a marginal outperformer.
N. Europe: All 6/6 outperformed gold (DEM, NOK, GBP, IEP-Ireland, NLG-Netherlands, BEF-Belgium positive vs gold)
Southern Europe: All 6/6 outperformed gold (ITL, ESP-Spain, CHF, GRD-Greece positive, FRF, ATS-Austria positive)
Eastern Europe: 4/5 outperformed vs gold (BGL-Bulgary, CSK-Czech, PLZ-Poland, HUF-Hungary positive vs gold, RUB negative vs gold)
Middle Eastern Basket: All 5/5 underperformed gold (ILS-Israel, SAR-Saudi, KWD-Kuwait, JOD-Jordan, IRR-Iran)
Southern Asia: all 6/6 currencies underperformed gold (INR, LKR-Sri Lanka, BDT-Bangladesh, PKR-Pakistan, CNY-China, AFA-Afghanistan)
South East Asia: 5/6 currencies underperformed gold (JPY, THB-Thai, IDR-Indoneasia, MYR, SGD(except KRW-S. Korea, positive)
Central Asia: 3/4 currencies underperformed gold (KZT Kazakhstan, positive, CNY-China, RUB, UAH-Ukraine, negative)
S. Pacific: 3/4 currencies underperformed gold (NZD positive, AUD, FJD, PGK-Papua New Guinea negative)
N. Africa: 5/6 currencies underperformed gold (TND Tunisia positive, SDD Sudan, EGP-Egypt, LYD Libya, ETB-Ethiopia, MAD-Morocco negative)
East Africa: 3/5 currencies underperformed gold (MZM-Mozambique and UGS-Uganda positive, TZS-Tanzania, KES-Kenya, MUR-Mauritius negative)
W. Africa: 4/4 currencies underperformed gold (DZD-Algeria, NGN-Nigeria, STD-Sao Tome, GHC-Ghana, )
S. Africa: 2/4 underperformed (ZAR, SZL-Swaziland-Positive, ZWD-Zimbabwe, AON-Angola negative)
N. America/Carribbean: 4/6 underperformed (CAD, DOP-Dominica positive, CUP-Cuba, MXP-Mexico, USD, TTD-Trinidad, negative)
Central America: 5/5 underperformed (CRC-Costa Rica, SVC-El Salvador, GTQ-Guatemala, HNL-Honduras, NIC-Nicaragua all negative)
S. America: 4/5 underperformed (ARS-Argentina, CLP-Chile, VEB-Venezuela, BRL-Brazil negative, PEN-Peru positive)
Metals: XPT (Platinum) negative vs gold, XAG (Silver) positive vs gold), XPD (Palladium) negative vs gold
I guess as a general rule of thumb. This last year most major currencies outperformed gold exc USD, JPY
Some baskets they didn't have and I made up were:
'Prospective EU entrants' (Turkey, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia Bularia) Czech, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia outperformed, Turkey, Slovenia underperformed.
'Scandanavian countries' (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Iceland). All countries outperformed, although Finland and Denmark were marginal outperformers.
I also looked at the Everbank Multi currency CDs
Viking (Norway, Sweden, Denmark)-all outperformed vs gold
Petrol (Norway, UK, Mexico) UK, Norway outperformed vs gold.
Commodity (Canada, Australia, S. Africa, New Zealand)-all outperformed vs gold
Also, there is the top gold producers basket: S. Africa, Russia, Canada, Australia, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Peru, USA. Russia, Brazil, China, Indonesia, USA, underperformed. S. Africa, Canada, Australia outperformed.
Oil currencies were mixed with Libya, Mexico, Russia and all Middle East currencies underperforming. Kazakhstan, Norway, UK and Canada outperformed.
I find it interesting which countries are in the underperform group and outperform group. The USD joins all Middle Eastern Currencies, almost all S. American currencies and Asian currencies in underperforming gold. European nations generally outperformed gold and I wonder if gold begins to outperform those it would be a good time to go fully invested? Now is still way too early, as I've questioned these ebullient analysts and groups like GATA who use TA on a sub-group of nations that excludes many wealthy currencies.
If you use this data please do so at your own risk.
David |
