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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: twmoore who wrote (57153)	12/12/2004 2:32:42 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Where were articles like this when the price of oil was running from $30 to $55?> If you do a search, you'll find a consistent opinion from me that OPEC was losing market share and that prices were too high and that unless they started pumping their oil and got the money, they'd lose to other options, of which there are plenty. Wait until Iraq's oil is really flowing and you'll see even more price cuts. They've got a LOT of oil and want a LOT of money. I maintain that the main reason for the original war against Saddam was to take his oil off the market. That's a time-honoured approach to gaining customers = get the opposition off the market. That is done in many ways, such as licensing favours by governments, industry cartels [the medical guild being a good example], buying the opposition, price wars to bankruptcy, trading blocs, and most recently dioxin poisoning. The profits for other oil and energy suppliers were in the 100s of billions of $$ by having Iraq's oil off the market. Not only did they get the business instead of Iraq, but the prices were higher. Sanctions were never about weapons of mass destruction. They were about keeping Saddam's oil off the market. There are plenty of weapons of mass destruction in many countries and there aren't sanctions against them. We could easily see $20 a barrel. Maybe even $10 a barrel. Anything over $30 a barrel in 2004 dollars leaves too many alternatives to take market share. Right now on CNN there is smoke from an Iraqi export pipeline being destroyed. That won't hurt prices. A LOT of people are pleased to see Iraqi oil stopped - including competitors. Mqurice