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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (57172)	12/12/2004 11:49:08 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

DAK, <borrowing gold and selling it and investing the proceeds to collect interest without a hedge>, but it is done with a hedge (see the report), is what appears to be going on This is exactly what Embry claims in this report, though, and matches it up with some pretty compelling data. You know, the CBs don't disclose the data on gold as they do on other financial markets, so you can't blames GATA, Murphy and Embry for thinking something clandestine is going on, even if you might not agree with some of GATA's presentation style, which can be over-the-top. 216.219.139.199 It's clear from the data he reports, from several sources, that mine production alone cannot satisfy global annual demand, and the shortfall comes from the CBs. Perhaps the shortfall is only 1000 tons a year, or perhaps it is 2000 tons or more, but I am certain of this: 1. Unless the US sharply curtails borrowing, USD will continue to slide and this will increase the annual shortfall and 2. Whether the annual shortfall is static or increases, CB vaults can only make up shortfall of a few more years. 3. Since mining costs are around POG right now it will take significant price increases to increase annual production. Therefore, you either have a slow increase in POG commensurate with annual increases in supply, or you have a sharp spike as CBs put off the inevitable. I would wager that GLD has a role to play in delaying the inevitable. D