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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (90620)	12/14/2004 2:13:43 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793750

Hewitt - Reuel Marc Gerecht's Wall Street Journal piece, "Will Iran Win the Iraq War?" is must reading, but it requires a subscription. The summary: Iran is meddling big-time in the January Iraq elections because the regime cannot --simply cannot--allow a democracy on its borders: "Clerical Iran's primary objective is to ensure that Iraq remains destabilized, incapable of coalescing around a democratically elected government. Such a government supported by Iraq's Shiite establishment is a dagger aimed at Tehran's clerical dictatorship. Intra-Shiite squabbles do matter, and this one between Iraqi clerics who believe in one man, one vote and those who believe in theocracy is an enormous difference of opinion. We should not be fooled by the publicly cordial relations that usually exist between clerics of Najaf and Tehran. Najaf's position on democracy is an explicit negation of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's and his associates' right to rule Iran." Iran is responding to the threat next door by a variety of moves detailed by Gerecht, all designed to bring about chaos and civil war: "Tehran is trying to align itself with a variety of often contradictory parties because it cannot overtly oppose the democratic process in Iraq, in which an increasing number of Iraqi Shiites are passionately invested. Like Washington, Tehran really doesn't know what is going to happen on Jan. 30 and after, though it no doubt hopes that Sunni Arabs abstain from voting en masse, thereby supercharging sectarianism. If a civil war could be provoked, Iraq's democratic experiment and moderate Shiite religious establishment would probably both collapse. If the neighboring one-man, one-vote clerics can be downed and America can be physically and spiritually drained in Iraq, then the two most feared, disruptive forces in Iranian politics -- Western-oriented Iranian youth and pro-democracy dissident clerics -- can be further weakened. The more the Americans bleed next door, and the clerical regime definitely believes America is on the run in Iraq, the less likely they'll have the will to take out Iran's nuclear program." The entire piece needs to be read, and hopefully the WSJ editors will make it available at OpinionJournal.com later today. The January 30 elections are hugely important to the entire region, and when you hear domestic political opponents of George W. Bush urge the delay of the elections or minimize their importance, make a note that you have identified a dangerous fool. Chances are the Iran-Iraq connection isn't much understood in America because the MSM either doesn't understand it or prefers to report different stories that emphasize criticism of the Bush Administration, like the "lack of armor" story. Agenda journalism works both in directly assaulting the political foes of the media elite and indirectly, by ignoring crucial stories the widespread dissemination of which would serve to bolster the standing of the political foes of the media elite. Then there's the problem that many in the media elite just aren't that smart, and don't get the second level connections or can't be bothered to do the work to understand those connections. hughhewitt.com