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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (57235)	12/15/2004 6:59:06 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 74559

Even if ALL his buyers are cash, TOL will still be hit by interest rate increases and a resultant slump in housing construction because other companies will bid for the cash customers too = lower prices and fewer customers for the swarms of hungry builders. I think most analysts and buyers are valuing the homebuilders as a growth business, vs a cyclical business. Here are some PEs based on FY 2006 earnings. They are from a friend of mine so I can only assume they are correct. BZH 6.4 DHI 7.6 HOV 6.9 LEN 8 NVR 9.3 PHM 6.9 SPF 6.4 TOL 8.1 If you believe they are growth stock and use the growth rate of the last couple of years, these are screaming buys. If you think they are cyclical stocks, then I believe the rule is sell when PE is low and buy when PE is high. PS: When are you going to get on your bike and come out here? Soon. I will knock on your door.