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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (18721)	12/16/2004 9:09:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

ECB mulls reshuffling Economics Dept tasks when Issing leaves in 2006 - report Thursday, December 16, 2004 8:41:46 AM afxpress.com FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank is considering reducing the responsibilities of its Economics Department, possibly when its chief economist Otmar Issing retires in the spring of 2006, Financial Times Deutschland said, citing sources. It said the Economics Department has been viewed as wielding too much power and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet would also want to have some influence on the areas of macroeconomics and cooperation with other countries. It said a possible scenario is to transfer some of the Economics Department's functions to the International Relations Department, which is currently headed by Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa

To: Chispas who wrote (18721)	12/16/2004 9:12:24 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK retail sales recover in Nov as Christmas shopping starts in line Thursday, December 16, 2004 10:17:40 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - High street spending bounced back in November from the previous month as the start of the crucial Christmas trading period started in a similar vein to recent years, official figures showed today The office of National Statistics said retail sales in November rose 0.6 pct from the previous month, compared with the 0.5 pct decline reported for October and expectations of a more moderate fall of 0.1 pct On a year-on-year basis, retail sales were 6.1 pct higher, up on October's 5.6 pct and expectations of a 5.5 pct increase. The statistics office said there were increases in most sectors in November Predominantly non-food stores, which include department stores and clothing outlets, did particularly well during the month, posting a 0.8 pct monthly gain Only other non-food stores, which include chemists, booksellers and the like, failed to post a solid gain in November, reporting a 0.6 pct monthly decline instead A spokesman for NS said the data suggest retail spending has "partially" recovered from the levels witnessed in the summer, adding that the evidence so far is suggesting that Christmas shopping is occuring at much the same rate as previous years, despite higher borrowing costs The figures, by themselves, are unlikely to alter expectations that the Bank of England is likely to keep its key repo rate unchanged at 4.75 pct for some time to come The rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee has lifted interest rates by a quarter point on five occasions since last November, in an attempt to rein in inflationary pressures stemming primarily from rampant consumer spending However, concerns on the nine-member panel may mount if retail spending continues to recover over the Christmas and New Year sales period and the labour market tightens further In the three months to November, retail sales rose 1.3 pct from the previous three months Based on non-seasonally adjusted data, the average weekly value of retail sales in November was 5.27 bln stg, 4.2 pct higher than in November 2003 and 10.5 pct higher than in October To highlight the importance of Christmas to retailers' profit margins, NS said the average weekly value of retail sales in December last year was 6.0 bln stg NS said the implied deflator, a measure of inflation, for November was -1.5 pct, slightly up on October's -1.4 pct The full retail sales report will be posted at the following internet address: statistics.gov.uk

To: Chispas who wrote (18721)	12/16/2004 9:15:49 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Brown reiterates that UK govt spending plans will meet fiscal rules Thursday, December 16, 2004 10:23:02 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - The Chancellor of the Exchequer reiterated today that the government's spending plans will meet all its self imposed fiscal rules "There are no circumstances where I see today that we do not meet our fiscal rules," Brown said in a testimony before the Treasury Select Committee in parliament Most importantly, Brown said the so-called 'golden rule' of balancing the budget, excluding investment, across the economic cycle, will be met in both this cycle and the next He explained that the current cycle will end "when the output gap is closed."

To: Chispas who wrote (18721)	12/16/2004 9:20:02 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

DATAWATCH UK retailers win some reassurance from Nov high street spending data Thursday, December 16, 2004 11:50:26 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - UK retailers may have won some reassurance this morning as official figures showed high street spending growth holding up better than expected in November On balance though, analysts said concerns that higher borrowing costs and a slowing housing market have prompted a sizeable retrenchment in spending growth, are likely to dominate in the crucial trading days ahead Nick Bubb, retail analyst at Evolution Securities, said Christmas so far has not been a bumper one yet, and noted the concerns raised by electronics retailer Dixons PLC earlier this month as well as the one-day sales Marks & Spencer PLC was forced into. "There can be time for a last-minute surge but it's been disappointing so far," said Bubb Earlier, the office of National Statistics said retail sales in November rose 0.6 pct from the previous month, compared with the 0.5 pct decline reported for October and expectations of a more moderate fall of 0.1 pct On a year-on-year basis, retail sales were 6.1 pct higher, up on October's 5.6 pct and expectations of a 5.5 pct increase. "Today's report suggests that Christmas on the high street will not be quite the write-off many were expecting," said Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics Nonetheless, the data has raised the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Bank of England next year in light of other strong releases this week "This completes the data for a week where the main numbers have all come in ahead of expectations," said Geoff Dicks, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland The central bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee has raised the cost of borrowing a quarter point on five occasions since November 2004 as it sought to stem inflationary pressures arising from above-trend growth and rampant consumer demand But evidence of a general economic slowdown, alongside subdued inflation data, cemented expectations that the MPC will not move its key repo rate from the current 4.75 pct any time soon However, higher than expected inflation on Tuesday, renewed tightening in the labour market and buoyant retail sales growth are likely to have raised eyebrows on the MPC

To: Chispas who wrote (18721)	12/16/2004 9:22:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. weekly jobless claims Thursday, December 16, 2004 1:45:57 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - The number of people filing for state unemployment benefits plunged last week to its lowest level since July, the Labor Department said Thursday Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 43,000 to 317,000 in the week ended Dec. 11. This is the largest decline in jobless claims since Dec. 2001. The department could identify no special factors behind the decrease. Jobless claims are at their lowest level since the week ended July 3, 2004. Economists were expecting only a modest drop in initial claims to about 342,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to a gain of 10,000 to 360,000 compared with the initial estimate of an 8,000 rise to 357,000 The four-week moving average of new claims fell by 4,500 to 337,750. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks fell by 50,000 to 2.74 million in the week ending Dec. 4. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 2.2 percent The four-week average of continuing claims dipped 11,000 to 2.75 million, the lowest level since May 2001

To: Chispas who wrote (18721)	12/16/2004 9:23:50 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. Nov. housing starts drop 13.1% Thursday, December 16, 2004 1:47:30 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Housing starts plunged 13.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.77 million in November, the lowest level since May of last year and the sharpest drop in more than a decade, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Housing starts dropped in every region of the country and in every major subcategory. Single family starts fell 11.7 percent to 1.44 million units in November.