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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (26064)	12/16/2004 3:45:39 PM
From: flint	Respond to of 306849

"As a newcomer to SI, you may not quite yet grasp that the prevailing emotional climate on SI is winter. The pessimists rule and optimistic or even neutral points of view are generally not welcome on many boards." Shut up you troll. Don't you know we have mish watching the hourly ticks to let you know when 4 straight hours say you are wrong.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (26064)	12/16/2004 3:59:49 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

<Home prices are booming because of unprecedented housing demand from mid-to-late 40s boomers> There is another factor in both areas where where I own property: The Old Cutler area of South Dade County in Florida and Washington D.C. (Georgetown). A cheap dollar has made properties in both areas attractive to foreign money. I own both properties for well over 10 years; I do not know that I would buy, but I am not selling.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (26064)	12/16/2004 4:43:17 PM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I agree that shorting homebuilders is too risky at this point. In fact i would argue that it would make sense to buy them as a sort of insurance against a melt up. However, i don't buy this argument about demographics and baby boomer housing demand at all. How many houses does one need to live ? Two,three, four ? Where have baby boomers lived all this time that they suddenly need so much housing ? Most of the demand is speculative. I know people buying 2,3 properties, parlaying their gains. Condo developments in Florida and elsewhere are being bought preconstruction several at a time. And not just baby boomers. It is across all groups. Most of the demand is an artificial, speculative demand from people who use equity gained on appreciation of their property to purchase either a more expensive one or to purchase additional properties. As soon as appreciation slows or stops, this source of funds and demand will evaporate overnight.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (26064)	12/16/2004 4:53:39 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

AC Flyer, Some very interesting ideas in here. I have some regional concerns with the base assumption. I think the Detroit area is going to suffer as people migrate in search of jobs to replace those lost in automotive. This automotive job loss wave is coming, and so far nothing that I see, or the many people in the industry that I speak with see, is going to change it. Dent's site is interesting. Do I understand that his spending wave forecast is calling for Dow 30,000 next year? I realize he produced that chart in 00 or 01, but it would appear that we are going to miss that projection. Dent also states he sees something of a top in 05 in real estate, with housing levels maybe sustained until 08. 08-10 we get a deflationary wave. Maybe Dent's timing is just off, and we get the deflation wave next year. Your point about SI having a predominately winter bias is fairly accurate. I try to keep this in mind while reading through my snow-covered glasses. Good Trading TH