Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (26089)	12/16/2004 8:13:34 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 306849

Your source confirms my observations of the 1990 real estate implosion - real estate developers own the largest inventory of land at the very top of the market. Additionally, the average cost on that land is two years worth of appreciation away from making economic sense when built into homes at their peak price. Of course after the peak, it takes two years of appreciation, plus an additional ten, to break-even. Virtually no home builders have the deep-pockets, of a Weyerhaeuser owned Pardee Homes, to buy hundreds of millions of dollars of land during the down-cycle, from other builders in bankruptcy, at a 95% discount to cost. I don't know why so many find this hard to believe. The protestations of the builders, that they have learned from the mistakes of the last cycle, are always forgotten about 2 to 3 years from the very top. .

To: GraceZ who wrote (26089)	12/16/2004 8:49:23 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

i happened to catch a realtor on cavuto last week.....at one point during the interview he asked her about the effect of the falling dollar driving up foreign investment.....she responded that anyone interested in RE should buy now "it's only going to go up" cavuto countered with the point that the last time foreign buyers (in this case the japanese) were driving up prices in ny, it marked a high, quickly followed by a correction in that market...(specifically noting rockefeller center) she reiterated, "buy now, it will only go up from here" she looked positively giddy, and yes i would say her expression bordered on smugness this is her website corcoran.com