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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (973)	12/20/2004 9:13:02 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1070

news.independent.co.uk People are on the case. Now all we need is lots of vaccine. <New bird flu strain 'will be worse than Sars' By Yeoh En-Lai Singapore 21 December 2004 International health officials warned yesterday that the world was closer to its next pandemic - a potent mix of avian influenza and a human flu virus - and that Asia was likely to be its epicentre. Francois-Xavier Meslin, the World Health Organisation's (WHO) co-ordinator for disease control, prevention and eradication, said: "We are getting closer, but when it's going to happen, I don't know. If it happens, which is not yet proven, it's going to be worse than Sars. A full-blown flu virus you can transmit easily to people in your family or people you work with. It's a highly contagious disease compared to Sars." Sars, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, killed 774 and infected nearly 8,000, mostly in Asia, in 2003. The H5N1 bird-flu virus, which ravaged the region's poultry stocks, also spread to people, killing 32 people in Thailand and Vietnam. But there was no evidence that it had acquired the human-flu characteristics it would need to be passed easily between people. Once that happens, the result would be a pandemic that could cause as many as seven million deaths, the WHO has warned. The WHO has raised fears that bird flu could mix with a virus carried by pigs, which are genetically more similar to humans, giving rise to a mutated strain that would become transmissible among people. ... continued... > If there are only 7 million deaths, I'd consider that a very lucky outcome. It seems way too few for what H5N1 does to people [not to mention birds]. Mqurice