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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flint who wrote (26115)	12/17/2004 10:14:48 AM
From: flint	Respond to of 306849

When a theory is right enough to be wrong Land over priced. Home builders holding Land. Housing Construction dropping. House prices falling. Yeah yeah yeah. Hard to ignore all that. Certainly the markets didn't. Housing after great gains was flat up until December. I made the trolling prediction that the dollar will pop, the treasury will strengthen, and to top it all off LEN was reporting with Greenspan speaking for the last time of the year. Did my home work, discuss the trolling views on another board. Moved fast and ferious (out of nowhere) lol into housing. I do believe this is just the beginning of coming to terms for the market. From December 2003 to December 2004 the right theories held down a profitable industry way way way to much. When Mortgage rates actualy drop to 6 months low. The charts will move up another leg. finance.yahoo.com

To: flint who wrote (26115)	12/17/2004 10:23:48 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Reading between your lines, you sound as if this time is different? When this home buying frenzy busts, the builders will drop like a rock. Back to a 10PE on 50 cents of earnings kind of drop. Who knows when it busts though. Or what the exact cause will be. But the mania will in fact end. Maybe it is interest rate induced. Maybe it is price induced as people decide that the premium they are paying for a 1/6 acre postage stamp tendy location lot is insane. Maybe its the sheer inventory of homes being built. Maybe its the perfect combination of the three. Interest rates, falling prices, and all that past sold inventory coming back on the markIt for a second time as the new owner tries to sell taxfree. Maybe it doesn't end for 2 or 3 more years. But it does end. And badly. (As in there sure isn't a large demand for a crap constructed 5 year old house, showing undue wear as a result of quality issues, in a used-to-be trendy hotspot which is now not so in vogue.)